I first bought RFG at $4.4 in late September as that was a good support level. It held and went up to 4.6 after the AGM. But then the negative news campaign started and the stock plummeted to $3.25 on 11 December. I wasn't worried by it because there had been similar articles written about Bakers Delight, Dominos, Seven Eleven, etc in the past. $3 was a good support level so I added some more at $3.07 , bringing my average down to $3.6.
My investment decisions were based on management's reassurance on 13 December that NPAT would grow at 6% for FY18.
Today RFG announced that first half profit would be $22 million, compared to $33.5 million for 1H17. It's also subject to $5 million sales completed by 31 December, which means 1H18 profit could be as low as $17 million.
This is totally unacceptable and amounts to deceitful conduct by management. I'll join the class action law suit for sure if there's one initiated.
Assuming the 6% NPAT growth is distributed evenly betwen 1H18 and 2H18, 1H18 NPAT should be 33.5*1.06 = 35.5 million. On 13 December 2017, 2 weeks before the end of 1H18, how could the company have no idea that 1H18 profit was not going to meet target? Even adding back the $7 million spent on Deloitte, NPAT would be just $24 million.
Nobody knows what FY18 results could be. Let's assume today's update is 100% honest, best estimate for FY18 NPAT would be around $50 million. Given the current market cap of $360 million, the direction of the SP depends on people's opinion on the company's future.
This is the worst stock I invested in this year. It leaves an otherwise very good year on a very bad note. I've had a few other crushed stocks before. Most of them turn out OK. But it's an awful experience which I try to avoid by capping each investment at 2% of total capital. But still, losing 0.4% on a single stock in a single day brings a lot of stress. Management need to be held accountable and made to pay for misleading investors.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- RFG
- What happened today
What happened today
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 12 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add RFG (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
7.2¢ |
Change
0.002(2.86%) |
Mkt cap ! $176.8M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
7.0¢ | 7.2¢ | 6.9¢ | $501.0K | 7.075M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 180836 | 7.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
7.2¢ | 223798 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 180836 | 0.070 |
1 | 245446 | 0.069 |
2 | 349376 | 0.068 |
4 | 274260 | 0.067 |
6 | 477990 | 0.066 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.072 | 223798 | 3 |
0.073 | 778173 | 5 |
0.074 | 151550 | 4 |
0.075 | 552752 | 13 |
0.076 | 756984 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
|
|||||
Last
7.1¢ |
  |
Change
0.002 ( 2.90 %) |
|||
Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
6.9¢ | 7.1¢ | 6.9¢ | 1091679 | ||
Last updated 15.58pm 03/05/2024 ? |
Featured News
RFG (ASX) Chart |