What happens if Lynas closes...

Since it is quite apparent that fear is driving the share price and since that fear is that Malaysia will shut Lynas down, I thought I would powerpoint some of the possible fallout from such a move. So here it goes... Malaysia announces that they will not renew any operating licenses until Lynas can comply with total waste remediation. Lynas is shut down (again)...

Malaysia

1. Malaysia and Kuantan loose Lynas the potential income from income taxes and other related contributions Lynas makes to both the government and the community...

2. Malaysia and Kuantan loose a significant number of jobs which will negatively affect the local economy and hopefully cause Fuzzy to loose the next election (she is on the list)...

3. Malaysia blows the opportunity to become the rare earth leader in the world. The potential of creating ancillary businesses may be a fleeting idea when international businesses look at Malaysia as a third world nation...

Japan

4. Japan currently imports the majority if not all of their REs with an estimated half of these REs imported from Malaysia (Lynas). This supply chain stops...

5. Japan is scrounging to find REs on the open market which piques the interest of China who is fully ready to assert it's influence on the Japanese...

6. World interest increases as Japan cries foul and tries to line up an alternative source of REs. Much of this interest will be very negative for Malaysia as the world sees that Malaysia is either unwilling or unable to solve a relatively simple problem because of a political morass...

Lynas

7. Having accumulated significant IP and experience, Lynas politely excuses itself and announces a new venture in a land far, far away from Malaysia. The world demand for REs has pushed the price of REs sky high making any cash raising endeavors quite sweet for Lynas...


OK, it probably won't happen exactly like this but I have yet to find anyone who can tell me what happens when Japan is cut off from Malaysian REs. Yeo may think she is in charge but we have to remember that Malaysia owes Japan a zillion dollars and an unhappy Japan could spell big trouble when they call in their debt...

I have given this a good deal of thought and I see path for a shutdown of LAMP as being very difficult if not impossible unless the Malaysian government goes completely off the tracks. I just can't see just a few politically motivated people create so much havoc that the entire Japanese manufacturing is affected. They won't allow it...

JMHO...