That is interesting spin Serena and rather ignores a lot of issues!!
For a start you keep forgetting the 300m shares already issued to WAPRC directly which (in rough numbers)is currently around 3%.
After dilution (from their own money) will be about 1.5% and obviously will be counted together with the ANS shares as they are related parties, so your 49.8% becomes 48.3 in the blink of an eye!!
This is all basically before a "ball is bowled".
At that stage SDL will have a meagre $4m working capital, apparently no Cameroon convention and is ripe for much further dilution, whether it is from surplus ANS funds or parties associated with the chinese group.
The current Sundance deal values SDL at .26cps, without Cameroon and obviously without any market influences. How the market reacts is anyones guess, however the ownership structure certainly would not be palatable to larger funds unless they had a real interest in the funding or infrastructure of the actual project. (Traders may well have a field day) Obviously if Cameroon is renewed then the SDL asset base is restored to previous, however there must be some real question over this, given the discount applied to the new Sundance deal!!
With all of these high powered meetings there must be some concern that Cameroon may well not be renewed for SDL and given to another party?! (and maybe even with SDL blessing - possibly the old "for want of an alternative")
If this Chinese consortium is serious about furthering Africa then it is improbable they would not want Cameroon included to support the transport infrastructure. The question is if this industry can get off the ground in Africa who will eventually own what!?
The concern for SDL holders is that they may end up owning an ever dwindling share of a much smaller IO resource than they thought!
The market can accept dilution as necessary however is less forgiving when dilution is coupled with a reduced asset base.
SDL holders will no doubt (obviously) be very eager to get Cameroon renewed
which will at least keep an even playing field.
Of course we are assuming that WAPRC will actually move this money to ANS in which case ANS will already be diluted however will have cash funds which can be used to further dilute SDL holders so it is a complete furphy to try and compare the relative holdings of each company purely at that stage, which is actually only a
change of control eventIt is the eventual wash up of who controls what assets which will tell the story........
I am only talking about SDL, not trying to compare with ANS for investment as they can watch this story unfold and perhaps see a portent of things to come for that Company.....................?
I am just an interested bystander and have no axe to grind (any more
) with SDL. I hope for holders that eventually things do work out, however the easy and cheap control events proposed ring a lot of alarm bells.
(Serena, you can cherry pick sentences from above and twist them to suit, but I will not respond unless something intelligent is said. And, it doesn't bother me if you continue to tell me I am not smart enough to understand what is going on
)
