what happens now., page-3

Hi shiraan, your questions are the ones most followers of GDY will be asking themselves. I am hoping kashga responds to your post. His opinions will be more informed than mine for sure.
I think it is likely that GDY may not be 100% sure exactly what their next move is themselves at this point and so have not said anymore until they have definitely decided the way forward from here.

What they did do was to decide to stop trying to recover the drill string, A. it was proving very difficult and B. the jam up is 430m odd from the bit so they couldn't be sure how much more effort would be needed to clear it all out. C. it is a long way to start sidetracking yet again and current equipment hasn't been handling sidetracking that well. So Bertus called for time out.

The heavier rig they have put an option on shows they are seriously contemplating a new approach to the drilling tecnique. I have my idea on this but its an uneducated guess with me because I have had no experience in drilling. However my thought is simply to go at these holes with a heavier duty drilling system as
despite having completed Hab.1 succesfully with the lighter rig Hab. 2 has shown that the terrain is unforgiving if things go wrong and you need that bit of extra grunt in things to avoid or clear jamming etc. wherever possible. That's my thoughts for what they're worth.

If that's the way they do go I would say they would start from the top, Hab.2b if you like. If that is the case then I would say the hole would take say 4/5 months all being well. If they go this track or some other approach I am sure it will be less risky as they will be selecting the best economically feasible method they can come up with simply to reduce risk as far as possible.
Personally I don't think they will try and sidetrack again but If they do it would probably be from the cased section of the hole, that is around the 3,000 odd meters mark leaving say 1,400m to drill, this will be quicker and cheaper than starting from scratch but with a higher risk than starting from scratch. We can only wait and see what transpires.
I would think they will get it pretty close to right. They really know what they are dealing with now.

When will they get the rig? Essentially when the current user is finished with it. They said last Qr. '06. No point in trying to be more precise.

Whatever the current 'cash-burn rate' is hopefully it will drop quite dramatically for now as work at the well has stopped or is 'on care' as they say.

That is my thinking shiraan, as I said at the beginning I am hoping kashga can respond and give us a more informed briefing. Otherwise we must await Bertus's pleasure.

geojac