I feel deeply sorry for the true believers in SDL and the many who have lost large sums.
I post from time to time out of concern that the misguided dreams of regular posters influence investment decisions of readers.
SDL is a value trap and is locked into a death spiral.
Westcott and others will still be pontificating over the latest report and sermonizing from on high of their deep research based knowledge when the shares are below 1c.
Indisputable facts to consider if you hold SDL:
1. Citibank long term iron ore forecast is now US$40/t.
2. Iron ore market is now dominated by supply and will be for the foreseeable future (there is no demand or need for new supply)
3. Steel industry is in recession in China and North America and Europe
4. SDL has $80million in debt which ranks ahead of shareholders
5. Chinese SOE's are undergoing a "Reform" agenda which is actually fragmenting and are paralysed by corruption scandals and weak balance sheets. There is no longer any collective intent for large scale infrastructure investment in Africa.
6. There is no finance available for new iron ore mines and no finance for new iron ore related transport infrastructure.
There is not going to be a Houdini like escape. Those waiting for Westcott's predictions to come good will be disappointed.
It is sad, but the dream is over.
I was a very early investor in SDL and a believer in the iron ore future for Africa story. I made a lot of money out of investments in SDL and AKI and EQX. The last 2 years it has been obvious to me that the market dynamics have changed and that unfortunately the African iron ore dream is not going to be a reality until the next global steel boom which is probably 20 to 30 years away.
If you think I am trying to steal your stock off you on the cheap with the above opinion please review my historic posts. I said the same thing all along from 10c down to 4c down to 1.6c and I will be saying the same fact based assessment when they are $0.002 cents while others will be posting "Big chance to double up - good news coming - we have the best iron ore - our railway can do 200MT - they only have to jump to 0.004 for us to double our money....".
J9
SDL Price at posting:
1.6¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
