Exactly, BBB.There is an oft-held (almost universal it seems...

Exactly, BBB.

There is an oft-held (almost universal it seems sometimes) assumption on HC that if you "DYOR" and do it properly, you will spot these lemons and be able to avoid them.

The converse of this is, if you invest in a lemon, you therefore have only yourself to blame.

But it's not strictly true, because the research you do will, out of necessity, largely come from what the company provides you.

Then the issue comes down to whether you can trust what the company is saying.

In Conti's case, the company's forecasts were rosey but not IMO unrealistically so. They were planning a series of small, technically simple mines in an area with a strong appetite for coal (SA was THE coal hot-spot at the time). They took over two producing mines, both of which have actually done quite well as individual operations, particularly Vlak.

They had upside in Botswana. Global coal price outlook looked strong pre-US shale glut. Deals such as the BBBEE and VanMag would provide short-term funding. Capital markets, of course, were tight but most of these mines weren't super-expensive (or so they told us) and relative to CCC's market cap, they looked very achievable with a combination of debt/equity funding. And then the later mines would be largely funded with cashflow from the producing mines - one a year.

The board had a lot of names I didn't know, but DT stood out as looking particularly well-qualified. JB projected confidence and dare I say it, competence in openbriefings, etc.

Given that investing in the stock market is ALWAYS a risk, particularly in spec miners, Conti looked like a good company - probably overpriced anywhere over 5c pre-consolidation, but fundamentally solid.

And then it all steadily fell apart. Go back and read BBB's first paragraph to remember how. Complicated capital structure, inability to generate significant profits at excellent coal prices, delays to deals, delays to mine progress, cost blowout on DeWitt that was truly mind-blowing, excuses from JB, claims that flagging SP would be fixed by AIM listing and consolidation, flagging thermal coal prices, the list goes on...

The big difference between BBB and many of us is that BBB was astute and knowledgeable enough to pick these things as they were unfolding, and not simply with hindsight.

Nobody IMO should kick themselves for investing in Conti in the first place - if you're going to beat yourself up over your CCC investment, give yourself an uppercut for not getting out earlier when the signs were there.

For me it's not been too bad because I never had a large investment so I feel like I've had just enough skin in the game for this to be a learning experience. I got a similar learning experience with MMX but lost rather more money. Hopefully between the two of them, I've learned something.