What, if anything, are people buying today in this 2 day selloff?, page-216

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wombat53

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18/02/16

12:56

Post #: 17053017
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Originally posted by AverageJoe ↑

I will take a look but some of those post there require no attention deficit. I suffers a lot form that! HaHa

Yes the Black Scholes I think that was what the option strategy of LCTM that failed very miserably. Henc I stopped believing in math models. The last one replacing the LCTM was the VaR (Value at Risk) I am sure you are familiar with. Paints such a full proof risk managed mitigation stamp on the CDO that one has to laugh how the world full of bright economists can get suckered into this type of herd thinking. I remember reading an article purporting the wonders of VaR and not being a mathematician or expert on anything finance, I was in someways suckered into this type of thinking the authors wanted out of their audience/readers.

The problem with a wired world is that google can bring up all sorts of pseudo contents that can magically turns into real facts. The doom market crash to the opposite euphoria bull trend wealth creation tends to place individuals in either camps. Both offers credible circumstantial evidence to support their views and either encourage big short or long positions in the capital markets. My days of punting this way has ended with the GFC that taught me a lesson about euphoria or depression in capital markets. The contrarian approach is best at both extremes but easier said than done.

I suspect DJ30/sp500 is in a range and I am watching both long held support and resistance to tell me who is really in control.

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I'm watching the S &P tick by tick, but also daily, weekly
Here's a Table I often Post:
US Major Mkt Index Closes, Wed, Feb 17 (DAILY) - at a glance, so to speak.

P.S I never did understand Options...too complex for me. Futures, yes, not Options.

Last edited by wombat53: 18/02/16
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0 Great analysis

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What, if anything, are people buying today in this 2 day selloff?, page-216

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