What if China ban Australia Wine?, page-144

The challenge for TWE is that their growth is massively leveraged to China, and they have little organic / alternative growth coming from elsewhere. So 3% dividend yields in perpetuity with limited growth isn't something people are willing to pay for. A back of the envelope estimate of intrinsic value that I did had TWE at $7 ex China for 3-5 years, despite the amazing brand of Penfolds and the $2bn of assets it puts on their balance sheet. Unfortunately, I think the non-verbal "announcements" will play heavily on TWE for some time, as they have been caught in the geo political crosshairs.