What if China ban Australia Wine?, page-3

Thank you for the reply @1110naga1011,

Well said and yes, I agree with you that Australia companies should target wider markets. However, it might take a very long time with large uncertainties. It is interesting that you mentioned India, I have been to both countries and in my personal opinion, India might need 30 or more years to be as developed as what China is now (from Chinese official: a research done in 2020, based on urban population which counts 60% of the entire 1.4 billion Chinese, average family assets valued at 500K USD or 700K AUD, 20% of the families have assets over $1M AUD and top 10% -84 million people has average family assets over $3m AUD) .

If we look at TWE, it is not performing too well in markets other than Asian (mainly in China), even prior to COVID19. It had disappointed financial figures for US market and led to sharp drop in share price earlier this year, its AUS market grew a little bit purely driven by increase in price but not volume.

If China does ban Aus wine, we would not be too surprise to see that the share price drop to maybe $8,or even $5, as the revenue would be halved.

My point is that the stock is still overpriced at $11 and I would avoid buying at this stage, which I think you might also agree.