FAR 3.49% 44.5¢ far limited

What if PE is successful?

  1. 1,837 Posts.
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    We have heard many scenarios, about the negative sides of this latest raising round. And fair enough, the gamma covered from bad to worst possible scenarios.
    I would like to invite now some opinions for the other side of the coin, from ok to fantastic outcomes, if the arbitration goes FAR's way.
    I'll start off from an ideal scenario (however probably unlikely) for FAR only.
    Suppose, that with a PE win, FAR comes out with an announcement, that they WILL PE, instead of coming to a settlement with WPL. Surely there are several majors, who like to have a decent slice of our field.
    WPL paid COP US2.24US/bo for a total of US440m
    At FID stage I assume the price of the reserves will be around US10.00/bo. FAR will sell this 35% JV share, of which the total is now according to FAR 640mbo. So the 35% totals 224mbo.
    What price would an interested major be happy to pay for this? Would US5.00/bo do it?
    The sale will give FAR US1,120 million, less US440 million FAR would have to fork out to WPL/COP equals US680 million.
    US680 million is approx AUD$950 million.
    What would our share price do then, as we do not need the US149million and the rest. FAR will no longer going to be diluted. FAR will have more than enough coin left. Another operator will take WPL's place and soon we are told, that the JV will go back to leasing a SV, instead of buying one outright. And depending on the new operator, we might get first oil in 2022 again. A variation could also include a 30% sale and keep 5% (18.65% , now where did I read this number a few days ago)
    Please take this not too seriously, as I was only daydreaming, but wonder , if this is one of the many possible outcomes.
    Who dares to come up with another positive scenario?
 
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