"Supposing he just gets over the line, what then? Almost half of the caucus will not really support him."
You view is too simplistic and unsophisticated.
Self preservation will ensure that they fall behind Rudd as leader and support him and the government.
Abbott won the leadership by ONE VOTE (his won vote). Half of the parliamentary Liberals did not support him, but they do now.
You also said:
"Gillard and Swan hate him so I can't see them serving in his cabinet, particularly if Shorten is given the deputy PM job."
They will be given the opportunity to serve, but if they choose not to, it will be their choice and not a revenge by Rudd not to give them ministerial portfolios.
There won't be an immediate election; Rudd will need some time to steady the electoral atmosphere. May be within a year there is an election. That is my take on that.
