They probably have a few - surely they've run polls to see who is popular and who isn't.
Decency isn't a guide for popularity (ref Trump on that one, no better example atm)
Below are some questions I asked --
we should all remember this ---------
what is probably the most important thing of all - is not who is the most popular Democrat who could win the popular vote ----
the election will be won or lost in the swing states
so, instead of looking for someone who is overall popular - they MUST win the swing states (I put a swing state opinion at the bottom, all it does is to confuse the issue IMO)
I would have thought someone like Shumer wouldn't cut it - based on this
Chuck Schumer's popularity compared to other Democrats appears to be relatively low. Here are the key points:
1. Schumer's overall favorability rating is low, with a -8 net rating (percentage of favorable views minus unfavorable views) among the general public[5].
2. Among Democrats specifically, Schumer has a +33 net favorability rating[5]. While this is positive, it is significantly lower than Nancy Pelosi's +53 net rating among Democrats[5].
3. Only 54% of Democrats view Schumer favorably, compared to 72% for Pelosi[5]. This suggests that Schumer is less popular within his own party than some other prominent Democratic leaders.
4. In a 2020 survey, fewer than half (46%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents gave Schumer a warm rating, with 26% rating him coldly and 27% neutral[2]. This indicates a lack of strong enthusiasm for Schumer even among his party's supporters.
5. Schumer's popularity is particularly low among more moderate Democrats. While 60% of liberal Democrats gave him a warm rating, only 33% of conservative and moderate Democrats did so[2].
6. As of June 2024, Schumer's overall approval rating among American adults remains low, with only about a quarter viewing him favorably[1].
It's important to note that low approval ratings are common for congressional leaders across both parties. However, within the Democratic party, Schumer appears to be less popular than some other prominent figures, particularly among moderate Democrats and when compared to leaders like Nancy Pelosi.
There isn't a single clear-cut "most popular" Democrat who could replace Biden as president. However, we can identify some top contenders based on the information given:
1. Kamala Harris: As the current Vice President, Harris is an obvious potential successor. A YouGov survey showed she had the highest approval among Democrats at 73% when considering potential alternatives to Biden[2]. However, her overall approval ratings with the general public have been low, with 49% disapproving and only 39% approving according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages[1].
2. Michelle Obama: Although she has not expressed interest in running, Michelle Obama performed well in hypothetical matchups. In a survey of young adults aged 18-34 in swing states, she outperformed both Biden and Harris[3]. She also emerged as the most favored Democrat among young adults in this group[3].
3. Gavin Newsom: The California Governor is often mentioned as a potential 2028 candidate and has been a fierce surrogate for the Biden administration. He has raised his national profile through appearances on conservative media and a debate with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis[1].
4. Gretchen Whitmer: The Michigan Governor is increasingly popular among Democrats, especially after leading successful campaigns in 2022 that resulted in Democratic control of the state's legislature and governor's mansion[1].
5. Pete Buttigieg: The Transportation Secretary ran for president in 2020 and is often touted as one of the Biden Administration's best communicators. He received 57% support in the YouGov survey of Democrats[2].
It's important to note that popularity can vary significantly between Democratic voters and the general public. While some candidates may be popular within the party, their appeal to the broader electorate could be different. Additionally, factors such as name recognition, perceived electability against Trump, and ability to unite the party would likely play significant roles in determining the most viable candidate.
The most popular current Democrat in the swing states appears to be the Democratic Senate candidates, rather than any single individual.
The polls show a consistent pattern where Democratic Senate candidates are outperforming President Joe Biden in key swing states[1][3][4]. This trend is observed across several battleground states, including Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin[1][3].
Specifically:
1. In each of these states, the Democratic Senate candidate is running ahead of Biden[1].
2. The Democratic Senate candidates are leading their Republican opponents by margins of at least 7 points in these states[1].
3. This is occurring despite Biden trailing former President Trump in all seven major swing states surveyed (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin)[1][2][4].
4. For example, in Michigan, while Biden was behind Trump by a few points, Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin led her Republican opponent within the margin of error[3].
It's important to note that this trend doesn't point to a single most popular Democrat, but rather indicates that Democratic Senate candidates as a group are currently more popular than President Biden in these swing states. This suggests that these candidates are managing to maintain stronger support among voters in their respective states compared to the president's current standing[3][4].
This situation presents an interesting dynamic for the 2024 elections, where down-ballot Democratic candidates are hoping to outperform the top of the ticket in crucial battleground states[3].
Citations: [1] https://today.yougov.com/politics/a...iden-trails-democratic-senate-candidates-lead [2] https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...leads-joe-biden-nationally-swing-states-poll/ [3] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...-biden-swing-states-2024-elections-rcna162417 [4] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4774563-donald-trump-joe-biden-2024-election-swing-states/ [5] https://fairvote.org/potus-and-vp-poll-july2024/
