I hinted I would do this, so let me go off the top of my...

I hinted I would do this, so let me go off the top of my head.

Now with current contracts (to complete) the EBITDA for this year (2020) is guidanced (at mid point) of $27.5 mill. Now when I put that to Rebecca (to confirm) she said 'oh, no we lowered for GCY to 25.5 mill (mid point)'. Since I (Dan) expect GCY to survive, I am going to use my $28 mill; they will get close to top end. (by the way if they lowered their EBITDA for GCY death by $2 mill, does that show you how much they EBITDA on every 15 MW PPA).

Ok, let us project that out.... $2 mill for 15 MW. That means the 219 MW we have (will have soon) should produce 219 / 15 * 2 = 28.7 mill. Bingo. I like that their numbers always seem to tally up with their 'other' numbers. Anyway, there is your EBITDA for 2021 with no new contracts. $29 mill! And I am going to top end this, so I will go $30 mill

So, with no new contracts (and GCY survive) we have EBITDA $28 mill 2020 and $30 mill 2021.

So, how much profit (EPS) will that generate. Now perhaps the EPS will take a hit because Tanami hits the deprecation treadmill. In fact, I am sure it would / will. The EPS is a problem now for me, as I can see it can be 'whatever Zenith want it to be'. In fact, let us try to get the EPS from lining up this year. The simple question is: will the $7 mill EBITDA growth be eaten up entirely by the new depreciation on Tanami. In short, no! Well, maybe YES!

2018 start year PP&E was 39mill, and the depreciation for that year was 3.8 mill. Hmmmm, about 10%.
2019 start year PP&E was 67 mill, and the depreciation for that year was 7.2 mill. Hmmmm, another almost 10%
2020 stare year PP&E was 146 mill, and the depreciation... should we go 10%???? is 14 mill!!!!!

So, the answer is likely YES. The $7 mill EBITDA growth will be completely goobled by depreciation. And the profit after tax will be another $5.8 mill (same as this year). The EPS will be destroyed because the shares increased 50%. 100 mill to 150 mill. So , the EPS will be (all thing equal) 3.3 cents FOR THE YEAR in 2020.

This gets back to EPS can be what Zenith want. Maybe as some wise people here said, 'Dan, dont worry about EPS, worry about cash flow'.

So I havent answered my question! Do I want many new contacts. Or no new contracts. Or a few new contracts!