what if...

Over the last month some posters have been shot down on valuations on the value of ESG and the BR's like us have been silenced as it is no use arguing with them continuously.
Notwithstanding DC's own valuation, now well over a year ago, before the AGM, of 2.4 billion (if my memory serves me right).

Some recent posters are talking $1 to $1.50 and are not unhappy with that.

ESG has got 2P + 2C reserve of 3272PJ and 3P + 3C reserve of 5857PJ, according to their announcements since 31 December 2009.
Why would they themselves publish figures, combining the P and C reserves.
To me that is because they think that these figures will come into play as a combined entity when the knock on the door has to be answered.

We are now a year further and know, that flow rates have been increasing (we do not know how far as yet) and the reserves must have increased substantially, according to the hints we have been given by the company.

In 2008, Santos revealed that they received $1.65/GJ for 3P from Petronas, However Petronas claimed they viewed the deal at $0.88/GJ.

Recently Shell's deal was valued @ $0.59/GJ for 3P.

Now is there anyone who feels that Arrows reserves are of the same quality to the of ESG?

Since Tony Burke's approval this Friday, I concluded, that our company is managing a superior reserve with less retrieving costs (multi laterals and no fraccing) and water & environmental issues than the players in Queensland.

Therefore ESG's reserves should have a built-in premium.
On December 2009 3P + 3C reserves alone, one can calculate a variety of scenarios to come to likely minimum valuations, even using Arrow's $0.59 per GJ for 3P.
Now just do your sums again with the possible upgrade we will get soon and one will have to conclude that $1.00 to $1.50 (at least as a final bid) will be theft from us shareholders.

I am quite confident, that the DR's scenario will not succeed and query the motives of some posters and in which camp they really are.

Any comments welcome.

S.