what if..., page-27

SF,

I cant recall insulting anyone.

BR wasnt my invention - it was a humorous take on posting psychology by our collegiate posters, as was BDR.

We all have a basis for Holding ESG - by sharing it in this forum it is exposed to criticism. From that criticism one could alter ones basis or confirm it. We cant always convert the other to our belief. We are all risking our own money and we do our own research.

You said that you think Santos is also an interested seller ?

Take the ESG LNGN adventure - where is that going ?
Is the propostion that STO would sell its stake to marubeni or any other realistic ? Is it realistic to think STO would pass on any JV-% that ESG wanted to sell down? I agree that STO has that as an option, but I reckon they would only exercise it if/when a big other-bidder outguns them and then they could throw in the rest of their acreage as well giving the new owner a basin master position. Sounds absurd doesnt it, considering the oft repeated $500M STO has invested ? - but possible.

If ESG brings STO into the circle-of-trust on LNGN then true collaboration can happen and both parties can give up some JV% to lock in buyers. It is obvious that STO is not ready to engage on Newcastle at this time. They recognise that they have a great resource in ESG and their own tenements and as an early stage project are just plodding along with the primary interest remaining GLNG. As I have said before, and have been derided, they could see ESG as backup gas for GLNG via pipe or swaps and later on for LNG via Newcastle.

I agreed with you before about their apparent narrow gas margin for trains 1+2 . Since then they have added extra tenements. The recently added 750PJ of Cooper conventional gas would likely go towards the FID for Train 2 meaning 750PJ less of CSG would have to be proved up - likely to be mainly at 2P ("existing uncontracted Cooper Basin 2P reserves being the primary supply source.") It does give them a safety margin on their conversion schedule. If they can't prove up the required CSG for Train 2 then they wont need the conventional gas so supply is precedent upon FID for Train 2.(assuming the buyers are committed) The 750PJ is also for a ramp-up flow management purpose and to add LNG as a high margin product type for the SA Cooper Gas JV. They are showing that they have gas all over the place to make up any shortfall. The bigger the margin ,of reserves to contracted, the better.

Their published 31/12/09 Reserves Report for GLNG was 3P=5954 + 2C = 2769 = 8723PJ potential converting reserves
Plus - added New adjacent tenements ?
Plus - 750PJ portfolio gas from the SA Cooper JV
Surely their drilling programme would allow conversion to reserves to cover 3.6x2x65x20=9360PJ by the end of 2011

How do you calculate the 2500PJ shortfall you mentioned ?

Is a takeover already in the breech ? - who knows ? My methods are mine I suppose but I reckoned approx 1mthVWAP +40% based on recent previous takeovers. Keeping our 1mthVWAP up is a good strategy for management anyway. Newsflow helps - maybe they do have something brewing - a strategic quietude at present to be broken at the AGM.



Cheers