what if!, page-12

Hey Aman and Turps

Still notice you have no stock held yet are making constant comments on IndoChine. Thanks for the vote of confidence in our magnificent company!

I 100% agree with Janus' comments and calcs, to be honest the guy is being conservative in his numbers, yet you still accuse him of being too optimistic.

With regards to your comment about takeovers always being opportunistic. I disagree. It depends on the situation.

If the price of the mineral has collapsed, and an explorer has no cash and 90% of its investors are retail, then an opportunistic takeover may occur.

Most explorers that find or acquire a world class exploration project like Mt Kare need to bring it to life with a Capex of between $150million to $250million.

This will either be via a JV arrangement with a larger cashed up miner, go back to their institutional investors to put up the cash or a takeover.

Now have a look at our very strong share holder registry. Where 45% are institutions. This should give you a clue as to the calibre of investors we have in IndoChine.

Why would these massive institutions invest in IndoChine, a $60-80m mkt cap ASX listed company, if they didn't expect significant upside!

We also have over 80% of our shares held by the Top 20 Shareholders. There will not be an opportunistic takeover of IndoChine. These major investors are multi billion dollar institutional investors. Not mums and dads who are happy with a 50-100% gain on investment.

Actions speak louder than words. Looking back at the history of our magnificent company, which has only been on the ASX for 16 months don't forget! :) Achieved a lot in that time.

When IndoChine listed on the ASX, it had the Cambodian exploration tenement, one of the largest in the country, sitting at 4200square kms. It listed in October 2010 at 20c per share with the majority 50% of shares sitting in institutional hands. 10% in management and 40% in the public.

In March 2011, it acquired the Mt Kare project and went back to its institutional investors for another $27million to take the 10 years worth of drilling research that Buffalo and Madison completed, and bring it to PFS and BFS completed stage.

Now these shares were issued at 30c per share. And the share issue was significantly over subscribed. Very rare for an explorer to have the assets(circa 2million ounce JORC COMPLIANT GOLD RESOURCE IN THE GROUND 5 months after listing on ASX!), nee $3.5Billion worth of gold and silver in the ground to issue additional shares at a 50% premium on their listing price.

And this $3.5Billion worth of gold and silver will increase substantially over time.

My conclusion is that if a takeover occurs, it will be at a price that is substantially higher than the institutional investors paid, nee much higher than 30c.

Why? Because the value of gold has risen significantly in recent years and will continue in its upward movement for years to come.

Think about this fact. When China Railway invested in Buffalo in 2008 to commence the initial stages of building the gold mine, before the GFC stopped the project the value of gold in the ground was worth $500/oz or 1.8million x $500 = $900,000,000.

The value of gold at the current JORC 2.1million ounces is as follows:

$1650 x 2.1million = $3,465,000,000

Now if we listen to Mr Promnitz' comments in his last presentation, "we wouldn't be doing our job as geologists if we didn't double or triple the current resource since we are next door to a 30million ounce gold mine..."

The value of the gold in the ground rises to:

$1650 x 4.2million ounces = $6,930,000,000
$1650 x 6.3million ounces = $10,395,000,000

This is assuming the price of gold doesnt rise 1c either! Which it will given all the money printing that is happening......

We have cashed up institutional investors, multi billion dollar investment companies that invested into IDC at 20c then again at 30c. They took a chance in their investment 16 and 12 months ago respectively, since the Mt Kare project was is in infancy and there was a lot of water to pass under the bridge in terms of land owner agreements, validating the incredible gold results/PFS/BFS and bringing the Mt Kare project to life.

I would be very sure that these institutional investors, now that a significant portion of the project is being derisked over coming weeks, would not accept anything less than a 500-1000% return on their investment in IndoChine.

Especially after August when the PFS is completed and a major derisking of the project is made.

But anything I, Janus or anyone else who is a long term investor has to say will be shot down because you are trading IDC. And that's fine. We are all here to make money.

The only difference between our strategies is timing. We all know IDC is a cracker!

And I can go back and dig up HC posts from both of you guys up ramping IDC in previous posts when you had "Stock Held"! :)

Whether we do it trading or investing in the long term is the only difference.

Otherwise why would we spend time posting on HC?

That's half the fun isn't it?

Cheers Nectar

PS Just be careful a Trading Halt followed by a Milestone announcement/high grade drilling announcement/take over announcement is made to launch the share price from its current trading range! It may well catch you guys out.

I have seen it happen before.....:) Every day you sit back and wait for IDC to fall and buy 1c cheaper is a day where one of the milestone events which are happening right now in PNG and at the IndoChine offices is going to catch you out.

We have had a week (last week) after Easter with no new drilling announcements.

Only 3 1/2 months to PFS Day! And 21 drill holes to come!