what if?, page-3

Hi littleguy,

Great question.

My guess is that the JV will be tied up making a simultaneous deal with the national oil company PNOC along with Nido.

PNOC hold 50% of SC 58 and SC 63 with Nido holding the other half. PNOC have previously made announcements that they will farm out these blocks.

Nido's strategy, as stated, is to farm out a significant position in all of its blocks to a single, preferably large, multi-national. Should PNOC farm out to the same company the farminee will end up with a significant and controlling share of the permits. This is what large companies dream of: controlling interest and operatorship of large contiguous areas. This deal would have to be one of the largest available, in terms of total prospective exploration area, in the world market today.


Reports in Manila newspapers state that PNOC is in discussion with Shell and BHPP. Shell are a long time player in the Philippines and BHPP has shown an interest in the area by penciling in a deal with Otto.

The political nature of this deal is huge and would likely take quite a long time to negotiate with local vested interests wanting to influence the outcome. I would guess that Nido would have to wait until the government approves the PNOC deal before Nido could announce anything. The goverment will want to get as much political mileage out of the deal as possible. Nido would be shooting themselves in the foot if they gazumped the government on this. That said, many months have gone by and one would think that a deal is much nearer.

Nido now have three directors who know Filipino oil politics from the inside and from the highest levels. Perez was Secretary of Energy, Manaluc was Undersecretary of Energy in charge of the DOE, working for Perez and then President of PNOC. de Dios was also working for Perez in the DOE and was did a term as Chairman of the PNOC board.

All three of these men are self made and successful in their own fields ie not your average government appointee; Perez in investment banking, Manaluc as a Sr VP in Phillips and de Dios in the field of business law. One could hardly imagine a better qualified or better placed team to close this deal for both Nido and PNOC.

Once the deal is done there will be little impediment for the new JV to get on with the job and start drilling the portfolio. The prize is world class, Nido are well positioned to endure a long deal period and have the people to bring it in.

Regards,

OPT