The comparison is BESBS on a single offshore high impact drill....

The comparison is BESBS on a single offshore high impact drill. Given the oil seeps overlying the prospect and dual flatspots hinting at oil Mbawa was supposed to prove oil prospectivity in the basin. No matter how likely gas was, no one thought of it as a gas drill. Wishful thinking? Sure, but that's the market. All valuations published and talked about focused on the oil possibility, even Apache called it an oil drill (although closer to 200-300mmbbl) gas was an afterthought.

That they're completely different geologically is a little besides the point. We're not talking about closest possible drill analogue, we're talking close investment analogue... small explorer, big high impact offshore well, not much other activity muddying the water. When I talk of PCL I talk of buying at 1.2c and selling at 21c not investing in a gas province hoping for oil.

I wholeheartedly agree PVD is a better drill and should remain so. PCL reached 24c pre-drill which was completely unsupportable given the maths. PVD won't have that GFC-nadir-to-massive-market-bounce providing that insane 2000% run up but even at the point of drilling after whatever appreciation there is (hopefully at least 100-200%) will leave PVD the better drill investment wise as well as geologically. I also agree 30% is very much on the high side and I'm sure everyone's using smaller figures for more conservative risk analysis, but it's pleasant having that much head room to play with for the swing-for-the-bleachers profiles.

I just hope PVD is covered by CFD providers closer to drilling. What PCL lost in leverage in the run up it partially clawed back with guaranteed stops.

I also like TPT but as a single investment PVD's farm out was literally gobsmacking. It gave me a lot of (probably unwarranted) confidence. That people can buy in at almost the listing price (even though there has been some dilution) is a bit of a gift.