The IRRs are terrible on all but the most optimistic case, and...

The IRRs are terrible on all but the most optimistic case, and the optimistic cases use an unrealistically high long term iron ore price. This means that on the current numbers it’s going to be extremely hard to finance the project (it’s ok about that IRR).

Low-ish capex and a smaller start up operation is only a good thing if you can finance it.

When I read the PFS I predicted it would settle at 0.04 or just below, but I had also assumed that the company would get some (but not all) credit from the market for the optimistic cases. It’s looking like that’s not the case.

My current prediction is that it will hit low 3s before stabilising in the mid 3s until the DFS. If the market gives no credit at all for the optimistic cases then it will go back into the 2s.

The MGT threads are full of blind optimists and pumpers so you can fully expect that I will get torn apart for this. Some will probably even complain that I hold CAP because there’s a dumb imaginary battle going on there. I don’t care about any of that - I’m just calling it as I see it. You asked the question so here’s the answer.

Don’t listen to anyone who cries manipulation. Manipulation doesn’t take you from 94 to 43 in a couple of weeks - only bad project economics will do that.