They need to do better with the buyback, it's clear that the...

They need to do better with the buyback, it's clear that the shorters are going to continually manipulate the share price unless action is taken. As you mentioned the US ADR upgrade is a simple step, attracting some decent buying through avenues other than expensive Soirees which didn't change anything, possibly Directors buying and more following of words with actions. As for a 2nd strike it must be one of the targets the shorters are striving for as they know the share price is the scorecard - they have certainly helped get CUV to 5 year lows and kicked out of ASX200 - so my opinion on price targets in relation to that is:

Under $25, almost certain 2nd strike. Pre FDA approval SP and about the current market cap of cash burning Disc, who just flunked their EPP phase 2 which was their lead indication.
$25 - $30. Likely 2nd Strike, possibly avoiding. Market cap at $30 is only P/E around 40 which is low by CUV historical standards and current comparisons.
$30 - $35. V likely avoiding 2nd Strike, possibly not.
$35+. Highly likely to avoid 2nd Strike.

Average current analyst PTs around mid $20s and one analyst pricing in Vitiligo nearly $50. Mesoblast with a history of burning shareholder cash up over 200% in the last few months, it is certainly achievable if they desire (or at least it will be obvious they had a crack by observing buyback numbers and other factors). Going to be interesting - use the 1.5 Million share buyback that's what it's for.

All IMO DYOR