Based on the well publicised myth of oversupply peddled by MS and Macbank, mainly based on the assumptions that massive supply will come from hardrock producers in Australia in the next few years with various expansions and new mines coming on stream. The reality is - if the 6% concentrate price stay around US $600 to $700 as predicted, not all planned expansions or new mines will go ahead, this will lead to supply deficit (bearing in mind the current brine producers have difficulties to crank up production to meet demand as planned) to feed the massive demand required by EV and grid storage sectors. Current producers still make good margin at $600 to 700 per tonnes, but not many new mines will come on stream as MS and Macbank predicted, the whole oversupply sh.t simply won't happen based on current concentrate price. In the meantime the massive demand for EV and grid storage is unstoppable, the question will be who are going to invest in battery materials if the price stay in current level with no visibility of lucrative margin for their investment. It will only that take a few announcements from various companies that the expansions or planned new mines are ON HOLD or CANCEL to quash the oversupply myth In the longer term, Galaxy will survive and succeed due to the low cost SDV brine operation and better quality James Bay asset (MC will just be petty cash operation in the short / medium term), with the funding "almost" secure for SDV, we are much, much better off than many of our peers (no debt and no interest to pay and no CR required. Just need patient and our time will come, SP should be back to high $3 or low $4 when all dust settled.
GXY Price at posting:
$1.98 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held