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polarbear666

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31/03/20

15:02

Post #: 43799161
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Originally posted by wistfulyak: ↑

APT to me has all the hallmarks of a bad investment.

-Low barriers to entry: Its a race to the bottom, every man and his dog is getting into the BNPL market, in what is basically a "Perfect Competition" market. Afterpay had first mover advantage, but they don't anymore. The consumer doesn't care if they buy with "Afterpay" or "Schmafterpay", they just want their goods. And the retailer doesn't care either. They just want to pay the least commission possible. 4 - 6% is a huge amount to pay in commissions, and retailers are going to get sick of paying it when there are competitors that are much cheaper. I was working in marketing for a few different retail companies and they all decided to try out Afterpay due to FOMO, but felt sick about paying the 6% commissions. As soon as the product awareness of BNPL hits mainstream enough that consumers will be happy to use other providers, I believe retailers will jump ship.
-Dumb money: Every forum I go into, from random whirlpool forums to ozbargain I hear someone who has no idea about share investing talking about "investing" in Afterpay. The media is saturated with articles on this "hot new startup".

Hallmark signs of a bubble.And this doesn't even account for the incoming recession, reduced consumer demand, bad debts etc.

Change my mind.

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I don't need to change your mind because you don't know how to value Afterpay if you think it has no moat etc. I'm guessing you didn't make 100% gain on it when it was $10 ... given you can't predict it's price with even 100% margin of error, why are you bothering now? Salty non holders can't understand that bnpl is replacing credit cards and going global. Afterpay / Zip = MasterCard / Visa... The rest are not going to exist except in old-school retail chains who are too dumb to pay the fees and prefer hardly any customers using a service on 2% fee....

Yawn. group 1.
APT Price at posting: $18.72 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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