They modeled the outbreak in the United States which predicts the peak infection period
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projectionsThe forecast a week ago was far worse than the actual number of deaths and infections which they have now factored into the new model. This was the reason for the big jump in the DOW today. The virus impact seems like it will be far less than what they were originally predicting.
What Sharesdude is saying is not true. For starters, with the far higher numbers of infection in the U.S they are far closer to heard immunity, which means the virus, while not eradicted by any stretch, will very much be at a manageable level, and large portions of the U.S economy will be able to re-open. I'm pretty sure this will happen long before June. The economic cost of staying closed is too great vs. the number of lives saved. America tends to think like that, unlike Australia.
The story will be different in Australia. It will be more prolonged because our rates of infection are far lower, hence it will take a lot longer to acheive herd immunity. In fact, the rates of infection here are falling quite dramatically (which is why the all ords jumped massively today as well). This means the number of infections are probably getting close to too low right now, because the end game is still to reach heard immunity in a controlled fashion. There are only 96(ish) people classed as serious to critical right now across the
entire country, which is like 1/20th of the capacity that doctors have been talking about:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/Major news outlets don't like to publish low figures like this, because it doesn't bring back the masses for more, so you don't tend to notice until you go looking. But obviously the market is a much more keen observer and its cottoned onto the fact that this outbreak is far less serious than it was made out to be (as many many people were saying all along).
What this means is that these extreme isolation members that are currently being pushed are going to be relaxed far earlier than everyone was originally predicting. I'd be very surprised if things weren't starting to be relaxed within the next month. Its not going to be bars clubs etc. open full swing, but things will start opening again for sure. More and more of the public are calling for it and that number will only increase as people who have succumbed to irrational fear begin to realise COVID-19 was the Y2k bug all over again.
Sad thing for me though is it doesn't look like I'll get my APT sub $10 re-entry price. Win some, you lose some!
