what is bottom, page-803

Yep, what casajack said. Confirmed number of cases is not even remotely close to the actual number of cases because they didn't have enough test kits available. It's closer to 15x-20x the number of confirmed cases.

Even in Australia the actual number of cases are far higher than those confirmed. Two of my friends had the exact symptoms of corona virus, were laid out for weeks, but because they didn't meet the criteria for testing and they weren't in the at risk age group they were told to just quarantine themselves at home.

Like I said in my original post, it won't "magically disappear" as you keep saying, but that's not what its about. Its just getting the outbreak to manageable levels that hospitals can cope with, which the U.S will achieve by June, even in the absolute worse case scenarios. So for that reason, I still think you're way off on the 6-12 months shutdowns thing.