Tooluck, I welcome your constructive contribution and whether...

Tooluck, I welcome your constructive contribution and whether the information is positive or negative for Biota is not the point. It is only through such constructive discussions on HC that we understand the company better to form our individual opinion on whether the company is over valued or under valued unlike some others chanting hollow mantras.

You are correct that $4.2M funds were received from AstraZeneca but these were paid on 22 October. (Refer pg 18 of AGM document) and thus should not be in the calculations of the $55M end of Sept cash balance (But considered if estimating the Nov cash balance)

The $15M HRV trial costs would not be in 1 big hit. In the 11 Aug announcement, BTA said dosing is expected to be completed by December/January and the results are expected by the end of April 09.

You are correct that the $7.5M litigation costs were incurred and need to be deducted.

Perhaps to understand the cash burn better, we should turn to the unaudited P&L statement provided on page 17 of the AGM document even though it is not a cash flow statement.

If I remember correctly (I am more than happy to stand corrected hopefully with well referenced documented facts) the $1.9M relenza royalties had not been received as royalties are paid retrospectively and the royalty was announced on 23 Oct. This may (??) explain the $26.3M Revenue ($20M GSK settlement + $1.9M relenza + $4.2M Astra + $0.1M others) in the P&L

A substantial portion of the $3.4M “Product & clinical development” is most likely to be related to the $15M HRV trial. In other words, the bulk of the $15M expenses (say $15M less $3M) are yet to be burned from 1 October to say end of January.

I am guessing the $3.1M “Medicinal chemistry & research” expenses would be part of the normal cash flow & thus considered in the estimate.

Thus let us rephrase the end of September $55M cash balance Estimate:

30 June cash balance $60.2m.
GSK settlement $20m
End Sept cash balance $55m
Expenses (other than “normal”)actually paid in1Q:
HRV (say) $3.0m
Litigation: $7.5m

Thus other “normal cash burn” = $14.7m ($60.2+$20-$55- $3-$7.5) for 3 months from 1 Jul to 30 Sep or $4.9m/month.

To estimate Nov cash balance:
Cash inflow: Astra $4.2m; $1.9m Relenza; $0.1m others.
HRV trial: $6m ($15m – 3m =$12m from 1 Oct to 31 Jan)
Ave normal cash burn from above = $2 x $4.9m
Therefore estimated cash balance end of Nov = $45.4m ($55+4.2+1.9+0.1-6-9.8)
This equates to approx 25.6 cents per share.