30 June cash balance $60.2m. GSK settlement $20m End Sept cash balance $55m Expenses (other than “normal”)actually paid in1Q: HRV (say) $3.0m + Litigation: $7.5m + $4.9m buy back
Thus other “normal cash burn” = $9.8m ($60.2+$20-$55- $3-$7.5) for 3 months from 1 Jul to 30 Sep or $3.3m/month.
To estimate Nov cash balance: Cash inflow: Astra $4.2m; $1.9m Relenza; $0.1m others. HRV trial: $6m ($15m – 3m =$12m from 1 Oct to 31 Jan) Ave normal cash burn from above = 2 x $3.3m Therefore estimated cash balance end of Nov = $48.6m ($55+4.2+1.9+0.1-6-6.6) This equates to approx 27.5 cents per share, no where near the 34 cents spruiked by brokers.
BTA Price at posting:
36.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held