What is CBA's worth by Friday Close, page-23

I've been bearish on the banks for a number of months now and this is starting to look quite nasty.

I suspect this stock market fear will inevitably spread to the property market in the coming weeks and months...

If property begins to rollover (which I think is becoming almost certain) and construction projects wind down as a result, unemployment will drift higher and place extreme pressure on heavily indebted households at which point I believe the system will begin to buckle and there won't be anything that can be done to prevent a more severe economic contraction for Australia.

Bank shares will get absolutely creamed in this sort of environment.

For me, "buying bank shares on the dips" at this stage of the economic cycle is like trying to "pick up pennies in front of a steam roller" - ie simply not worth the risk.

As much as banks can be great business's to own, they are not a "buy and hold" stock for the tough times given the nature of their highly leveraged business models.

So I suspect we will have to wait until the conclusion of the upcoming recession before looking to accumulate bank shares again.

GLTA