There has been a masive amount of discussion on this issue on ADE thread from some very smart people.
Just some of the issues to consider are:
We have a verical well that has not been optimised as to diameter of well.
The frac went vertical, great for horizontal well dreadful for vertical.
There are many different types of fracs, so wont know which is most effective in our ground.
Dont know the optimum production horizon.
Will only be producing from a 400m section whereas a hozontal well produces from a much bigger surface area.
The reality is this well is purely to see if gas can be made to flow from the shale, full stop.
Any flow rates will be considered success
Personally will be guided from ann as too how commercial any commercially optimised well will be.
Gut feel is anything over a few hundred MCF and were on a good thing.
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