what is currently priced in?

Someone on another forum suggested an Andash go ahead may already be priced in and that we don't know when the Kurulti is going to happen.

This was my response;

M, regarding the Kurulti;
While we have not been given a deadline, just in case it does drag on, keep in mind that the Kurulti never was a precondition of site works commencing.
The only reason site works had not commenced prior to late last year was the company did not have full or near full community and government support.
They do have that now. They have enough support to go ahead at any time if they choose to.
I expect that they only decided to wait for the Kurulti based on the expectation that the Kurulti was imminent.
Remember before we even knew a Kurulti was going to happen, we were just waiting for community support and the change of government for full govt support.
There is actually nothing stopping us from going ahead at any time, obviously after informing the community and the government of our intentions. If the Kurulti drags on I don't see any reason why the company, the government or the community would not want site works to proceed regardless. I can understand the govt may want us to wait for the Kurulti if it is close.

Is the Andash go ahead being priced in already?
Considering the very deep discount to NPV of Andash based on the definitive FS, I would think it is only partly priced in.
Remember that many investors are skeptical on Kyrgyzstan so many will wait for an official go ahead.

How much discount is currently being priced in?
The DFS gives a value of around 30c based on reserves only and based on $1600 gold and $3.75 copper.
It states the addition of 6Mt adds 56% to NPV.
Zones 2 and 3 probably contain close to this according to the mid point of Hellman and Schofield exploration target.
The grades are lower so let’s say it adds 40% to NPV, not 56% based on the tonnes alone.
That gives a NPV of 42c. It will be much higher if the upper end of the exploration target is achieved.
We all know Atkash should be able to be re-acquired based on the fact it is too small to be a stand alone project.
Atkash contains around 308,000 ounces based on the mid point of the exploration target or 561,000oz at the upper end.
The NPV of Andash is based on reserves of 539,000 oz.
Considering the capital is already paid for, an additional 308,000oz should come reasonably close to doubling the NPV assuming similar grades.
However grades at Atkash are 2.75g/t plus 0.5%Cu (mid point of exploration target) or 3.5g/t plus 0.7%Cu (high end).
At the mid point of the exploration target, gold grades at Atkash are significantly more than double those of Andash (at 1.1g/t) and copper grades are 25% higher.
That would reduce costs very significantly and a doubling of NPV by adding Atkash may prove conservative.
At double, the NPV becomes 60c, plus the 12c for zones 2 and 3, gives a total NPV of 72c based just on the mid point of the exploration targets and at current gold prices which are well off the highs and still in a long term uptrend. This is all based on the FS findings of value added by the addition of ounces to current reserves.
Where will the gold price be in 1.5 years and beyond? If the trend continues at the same rate, $2000 and climbing looks likely.
NPV would jump 14% with gold rising from 1600 to 1800 (Sept 2011 presentation), so $2000 should give a 28% increase or 92c per share.
Management expect significantly more ounces from Atkash than those given at the mid point of the exploration target, so the upside is significantly higher again than 72c at current gold prices or 92c at $2000 gold.

Is a formal go ahead at Andash really priced in at 12.5-13c when the NPV according to the FS is 30c based on reserves and 72c based on likely minimum ounces to be added at current gold prices?
Even if 12.5-13c is appropriate, is Burnakura worth zero when it is due to commence production in just 5 months?
Would management start mining if it was worth zero?
Is Jervois worth zero when in ground value is already approaching in ground value of Andash and grades are much higher, and the ore is protruding above the surface giving extremely low strip ratios for the first couple of years and grades are at 1.3% plus silver and gold credits?
We have cash worth 3c and have a paid for ball mill worth 1.5c (Andash), a mining fleet (Andash) worth 1.5c and a refurbished CIL plant at Burnakura plus heap leach equipment (total replacement value 2-3c min?). I.e. cash plus mining assets worth around 8-9c.

Almost nothing for reserves, resources or future cash flow is priced in at 12.5-13c IMO.