When I look at available info re US market-shares in retail (higher value) & hospital segments, I'm now thinking that the ACL net profit share from the US market may grow from abt $13 million this FY to abt $17 million in 2015.
The 2 big 'game-changers' would be: (a) Glaxo withdraw the Apotex AG deal; and (b) DRL/ACL find a lot more processing cost efficiencies that enable them to sell profitably into the hospital market. While both are possible; not sure they can currently be regarded as high probability. The European market is smaller than the US and very cost-controlled.
So; I wouldn't currently assume big ACL income from Europe - perhaps $2.0 - $5.00 million per year. Rest of world market ?? But, it aint gunna happen soon.
So; today ACL fonda perhaps worth $100-$125 million to a buyer; roughly 35-40 cents per share.
My own personal view is that the ACL oncology/VAST assets are far, far, more valuable than fonda.
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When I look at available info re US market-shares in retail...
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