re: what is france up to? .... protecting iraqi oi
Hi folks,
Grant has made a good point:
"3)protecting its own commercial and strategic interests in the region;"
Let's look at that a little closer and we can see how this whole scenario is being played out for commercial gain by the big oil companies, on both sides of the Atlantic.
Bush is simply being used by the home-grown US oilers to find way to divest the FRENCH, ITALIAN and GERMAN oil companies of their Iraqi oilfield interests.
..... using the excuse of WOMD is the perfect cover.
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Proof is as close as the price charts of these companies and their fundamentals.
First up, let's take a look at a little history and some timing of events within the oil industry.
With Clinton's term coming to an end, so to was the boom times for the oilers, at least for some.
Schlumberger (Big Blue) saw the writing on the wall and attempted to sidestep some of the flak coming its way, through the change in Presidency.
They did that by unloading their drilling arm, SEDCO FOREX, to an American competitor, Transocean (Code RIG) , but SLB retained a 51% interest. Interesting about the timing of that deal, December 2000 ..... one month before Bush is sworn into office.
Until August 2000, Schlumberger had operated in relative freedom under the Clinton administration, but with the prospect of Bush being elected, the story changed dramatically.
Here was a company, with French roots, that was earning money in Iraq, during the period of sanctions.
Now take a look at the SLB chart and since Bush was sworn in in January 2001, the SLB chart has been in a steady slide, even though oil prices were trending up during that period.
In fact, from a high at $86.87 on 24082000, SLB slid to its lows in Oct 2002 at $33.40 ..... right around the time the weapons inspectors were admitted to Iraq.
Since then the SLB price has steadily ticked up to its current level of $37.66, as the case for war diminishes.
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This slide in price could partly be attributed to SLB's own dictatorial attitude towards the oil companies, when supplying them with services ..... "we are the biggest and best ..... therefore you will pay the rate that we demand." ..... not so,said the oil companies.
However, the main reason for the afflicted SLB price was surely the drawing of geopolitical boundaries by Bush regime that made it difficult for SLB to do business with American oil companies, while also maintaining a presence in Iraq, through their French parent.
Let's compare the two oil services giants, US-based Halliburton and Schlumberger, over the past 52 week period:
Schlumberger low $33.40 high $86.87 now $37.66
Halliburton low 8.97 high $21.65 now $18.60
It is easy to see that the US company has been able to recover close to its 52 week high, whereas SLB has suffered, due to the US oil companies siphoning their business away from the French rebel, who has links in Iraq.
After the 1991 conflict, SLB were asked to bid on a contract to send 21 land rigs into Iraq to rebuild the damaged oilfields ..... this project was on the drawing board for a year or more, before it was dropped, due to pressure from the US oil companies.
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German companies, like Deutag, also stand to lose, if a US invasion comes to pass.
So, its pressure from the oilfield interests in France and Germany, on their respective governments, that has seen the conflict within the UN, right along the lines of commercial interests in those oilfields.
Likewise, it is the US oil companies pressuring Bush to go ahead with the invasion, that keeps their hopes alive of finally being able to get control of the only prize in IRAQ ..... its oilfields.
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Anybody who doesn't believe that this invasion is about control of Iraq's oilfields, please answer these questions:
Who has the most to gain from an invasion?
Answer: US oil companies .....
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Why haven't the inspectors found any evidence of WOMD, nuclear or otherwise?
Answer: Maybe, there's not many to find .....
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Why is Bush so insistent on an invasion, against the wishes of many of his own people and the rest of the world?
Answer: Pressure from US oil companies .....
------------ How will the oilfields be divided after the invasion?
Answer: Between US and British oil companies and maybe a few scraps for the allies .....
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Strangely enough, after the invasion SLB will likely benefit anyway, since it will then be seen as an American company rebuilding IRAQ ......
SLB has hedged its bets nicely, whatever happens in IRAQ, they stand to benefit ..... no war, they win via the French connection ..... after an invasion, the US oil companies will forgive them their sins and give a fellow-listed US company the seismic and logging contracts ..... even if it is only because SLB is the biggest .....
