what is going on at egn?, page-9

A few points (not designed to comprehensively address all that has gone on), just some observations:

1. Communication clearly an issue.
2. Systems also an issue.
3. Not sure the business has been mis-managed. It probably has though. Turnarounds are notorious for taking longer than expected.
4. The stock is possibly cheap right now. Need to see the extent of any writedowns. Pre-writedowns, NTA is $139m ($1.12ps) and book equity is $188m ($1.52 ps).
5. The profit numbers didn't seem that bad. ROE of -1% instead of +1% (say).
6. The covenant issue is concerning.
7. It is encouraging that DE is providing financial support (refer last 2 announcements).
8. If an equity raising was required after the breach as disclosed in Feb results, approx $13m of equity was required (my calcs). Amount now would be more (if a raising is actually required).
9. Not being across the writedowns, a 1:1 rights offer @20c would raise $25m. A 3:1 @10c would raise $37m.

Clearly it has been a disaster for long term shareholders. However right now there could be value a good opportunity emerging. I am coming to the picture as a former holder who bought a small stake yesterday (Friday).