The world consumes about 84 million barrels a day. Your plateau scenario may be right but it doesn't mean we are not facing an oil crisis.
Of the 84 million barrels the US consumes about 20- 21 million bbl's each day. The US population is only 305 million approx.
China with over a billion people currently consumes 7.2 million barrels a day. India with well over a billion only 2.5 million a day.
As both of these countries modernize rapidly what do you think is going to happen?
Six times the population of the US would consume about 120 million barrels a day . But say India and China only ever consume a third of the amount per capita of the average american.. that is still 40 million bbl's a day of oil. or 34 million barrrels extra per day.
Rising demand, production plateau = peak oil. I think the plateau idea is debatable by 2015, but even assuming the world maintains its 85 million barrels a day we have a problem. Unless you see China and India settling for a much lower standard of living as their disposable incomes rise? For the last few months Chinese new car sales have eclipsed the US.
The substitute fuel for transport is logically going to be LNG. At the same time gas demand will increase dramatically from the power generation sector as uncertainty over carbon emissions regulation forces utilities to phase out coal plant and build gas plants (as is happening in Aust. already ) This is why the EIA and others (see woodside) predict the world needs to add about 15mt of new LNG capacity every year until 2020 and why Shell just announced they are going for 15 mt p.a from Gladstone by about 2015.
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