what is going on, page-3

s Myanmar about to experience an exploration boom?

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0		By Dr Nicholas J Gardiner, Research Fellow, Centre for Exploration Targeting – Curtin Node, Department of Applied Geology, Western Australian School of Mines, Curtin University; and John P Sykes MAusIMM, Provisional PhD Candidate & Adjunct Research Fellow, Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth & Environment, The University of Western Australia and Director, Greenfields Research Ltd

Production, potential and geopolitics in an important new minerals search space
Myanmar (Burma) has recently appeared on the radar following the media coverage of its crucial November 2015 elections. This unprecedented democratic process resulted in a stunning victory for Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy (NLD) party, and led to The Economist naming Myanmar as its ‘most favoured nation’ for 2016 (‘Most Favoured Nation’, 2015).

The Kyaukpahto Gold Mine, Sagaing Division.
One of the largest countries in South-East Asia, Myanmar is by most measures also one of the poorest, a result of an oppressive military regime that pursued a policy of political and economic isolation over much of the last 50 years. However, in the early 20th century, Myanmar was one of the wealthiest countries in the region. It boasted a significant minerals industry, and was a major producer and exporter of tin, tungsten, lead, zinc, copper, nickel and silver. However, since the early 1960s the minerals industry in Myanmar – mirroring much else about the country – has suffered significant decline.
Today, Myanmar’s mining sector is effectively an artisanal industry, accounting for less than 0.1 per cent of Myanmar’s GDP; however, significant potential remains for its redevelopment. The upside of the long-term decline is that many of the country’s major mines have not been mined out, and are candidates for rehabilitation. Further, much of the country has not been explored with contemporary techniques and remains a new search space for a range of commodities. Figure 1 shows a map of Myanmar with primary metal showings, and major mines (Gardiner et al, 2014).

The potential for Myanmar to act as a ‘game changer’ in the global mining industry was demonstrated in 2014, when Myanmar emerged as the world’s third biggest tin producer, apparently experiencing a 5-year-on-year growth of over 4000 per cent by ITRI figures (Figure 2; Gardiner et al, 2015). The impact of this is still being felt within the tin markets. Although there remains considerable uncertainty about the medium-term trajectory of its indigenous tin industry, allied with concerns over the validity of the production data, the story nevertheless exemplifies how Myanmar has the potential to make a global impact within the metals sector.

So, given the recent election result, it is timely to ask: what does the rise of the NLD and the prospect of a democratic step-change mean for Myanmar, and how might that be reflected in the potential for minerals exploration and production within the country?