I agree with your last statement; minimal information currently...

I agree with your last statement; minimal information currently available.

what we do know is:
1. FEX and TI1 are start ups. FEX first ship was in Feb and TI1 was in July.
2. Both are looking to mine about 1.2mtpa
3. TI1 is mining 67% Fe whereas FEX is a 62% Fe product and with current pricing 67% Fe is worth more.
4. FEX has put in place a hedge which will keep returns higher for the next year whilst TI1 has an offtake linked to 65% pricing.
5. On Monday, MC of FEX was about $130m compared to TI1’s MC of $90m which equates to $40m difference. FEX had $69m of cash at 30 June of which it is paying out $25m in dividends. Not sure what TI1 has in cash but suspect it would be over $20m as they would have shipped 3-5 38kt loads by mid September.

Being in Brazil, it is hard to believe TI1’s costs will be higher than FEX.

there are lots of parallels between the two companies but the big difference for me is time. FEX in mid April was not a clear winner and SP was in the low 20s and a MC around the $90m range. Half a year later it is in a very different space; cashed up and able to weather the next year or so. TI1 in 6 months will imho be in a similar position. IO prices may be lower but it has a premium product and should have lower costs. I topped up yesterday and my dividends from FEX will probably end up funding some more TI1 shares if they stay this low.

happy for this to be challenged but at the end of the day, a Q3 update in late October will confirm if TI1 are indeed what I believe they are.