https://irena.org › Files › DecPDF Green hydrogen cost reduction: Scaling up electrolysers - IRENA
possible valuation:
550,000tpa. revenue of H2 ~US$3-5kg 2030 H2 production cost estimates ~US$1.80-2.20kg gross margin at 100% ~US$440m -US$1,760pa multiple of 8x GM @0.7 fx @ 50% puts the H2 plant worth @ A$2.5bn -10bn A$120m market cap put this at 1.2% of potential enterprise value on the high side and 4.8% on the low side
very simple calc and no CF discount applied or revenue/ cost increase on inflation.
This assumes production cost reductions follow IRENAs proposed cost reduction of electrolyser per 2020 white paper
1.2% EV on upside looks cheap to me. 4.8% looks pretty fair. 7 year development, plenty of de-risk required.
Other thoughts:
what is the land holding worth. FFI have pegged all the land around the PRL site. cost upfront $3m and $5m pa holding cost. 10 years ~A$50m no cf discount. bigger land holding but no port access.
partnership: opportunity to source ~$27bn of project funding. 10-15% ROIC for the energy supplier. Project access of return at this scale is very valuable to a partner and shows value of project. hard to put a $ on the for PRL.
government engagement: hard to put a value on the government organising and fast tracking a project on your behalf. i personally put a large value on lead agency status as a massive de-risk to the project.
PRL Price at posting:
8.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)