We have no updated numbers re a PFS on Alpha, but we know bitumen prices have more than tripled. We know there is a 21m barrel of oil equivalent. We know the resource can be expanded. We know it’s the only economic torbanite deposit in existence. We know there is a huge Government infrastructure spend ahead, and we know the big players in the bitumen space are keeping a keen eye on this. Subject to gaining the relevant approvals, my guess is that Alpha is potentially a $2b asset. Two years ago, I was thinking $600m. (There are other potential products other than bitumen from this project)
Of course, there probably won’t be 400m shares on issue going forward.
The big unknown is where the Geothermal will land. That could be worth ridiculous amounts.
The Board has runs on the board with PLS. This is shaping up rather similarly. Lithium was not the flavour of the month in 2014! There’s scepticism around geothermal, even though it’s successful overseas. Is history repeating!
My $4 prediction is not entirely scientific because there are a host of variables at this moment in time. There are no guarantees. It’s my conservative assessment of the potential, which I hope eventuates! Patience will be required, though I do foresee renewed interest in this company before too long.
I am adding to my position, as I can, and trying not to think about what I am down on paper since the 60c highs. The long term plays are not easy!
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