More from Damascus by Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai
Eastern Ghouta seems to be a turning point and a most strategic fight for both Moscow and Damascus. Many reasons motivated this alliance to control it and take it away from the jihadists and rebels. On the other hand, such determination implies similar willpower in the opposite camp led by the US and its allies to prevent Ghouta from being liberated. This is the struggle between the two camps: one is determined to regain control of Ghouta and head towards the end of the war in Syria, and the other is equally determined to keep the war going.
These are the main reasons:
1. Ghouta was and still is considered one of the main areas offering air protection to Damascus against any air attack, possibly coming from Israel. The Syrian Air Defence system has maintained several anti-air missile bases in Ghouta for decades as a crossfire point around the Syrian capital.
At the beginning of the war, the Syrian Army demounted its air radar defence system in Ghouta just before it fell into the hands of the rebels and jihadists. The army didn’t manage to retrieve all missiles: some were destroyed by the new occupiers and others were used, managing to hunt down a Syrian jet.
As they recover Ghouta, the Syrian Army is preparing to deploy an advanced anti-air system, adding an important additional defensive element for the capital Damascus, against any air or long-range missile attacks or violations of its air space.
2. Eastern Ghouta is the weakest point in the vicinity of the capital Damascus. Actually, jihadists and rebels bomb the capital daily with dozens of rockets and missiles. This would make it impossible for any presidential or parliamentary elections to take place under such a continuous threat against the population. In fact, as long as Damascus is unsafe, any political proposal offered by Moscow to end the Syrian war would be handicapped.
3. Ending the war in Ghouta means putting an end to the presence of al-Qaeda (Jabhat al-Nusra aka Hay’at tahrir al-Sham) and Ahrar al-Sham (a group combining the Salafi Jihadists Takfiri and the Muslim brotherhood doctrines) around Damascus. This means, these jihadists will be forced to flee Ghouta for Idlib once they understand the battle to be lost. That will definitely create a push for an exchange with the inhabitants of the besieged cities of Fua and Kfarya, surrounded by Jihadists in north Idlib for over three years.
A similar exchange took place in December 2016 when jihadists and civilians were offered free passage from Aleppo in exchange for Fua and Kfarya civilians (of which dozens were killed while they were crossing, by a suicide bomber from Jund al-Aqsa, the organization close to the “Islamic State” (ISIS) which works alongside al-Qaeda in northern Syria).
4. Ending the battle of Al-Ghouta will free tens of thousands of Syrian soldiers so these can go directly to the southern city of Daraa and also liberate the border area with Israel. One of the Syrian Army’s main targets is expected to be the stronghold of “Khaled Bin Al Waleed’s Army” in the Yarmouk basin on the borders with Israel. This is composed of factions previously associated with ISIS (implying identical methods of operation and ideology), repetitively praised by the ISIS official media outlet A’maq and Al-Battar. ... "
