what is history and the results telling us

Hi folks

A little over a week ago PLV MD Tony Schoer (Showman) posted here (attached below) saying he couldn't add anything at this time due to not being able to say anything without making an announcement to the ASX.

I thought that was a very interesting comment as it implied near term developments/negotiations may be coming to a conclusion.
He also reiterated the companies committment to minimising dilution to ensure a shareprice worth $$$...not cents.

Lets look at whats happened recently though;

It was only 11 days (yep thats all folks) that the resource was upgraded 'again':

IRVINE RESOURCE INCREASES 54% TARGETING UP TO 150 Mt @ 66% IRON CONCENTRATE.
The inferred resource is now in excess of 450MT...and we are about half way through drilling.

We already know Investecs report on PLV attributed a valuation of $1.25...a valuation based on the earlier 100MT at 66%.
We can safely assume it is considerably more and will only be strengthened once the further valuation catalysts are met. (Mayala negs/Shiploader/further resource upgrades/enviro etc)

We also know that since that announcement 11 days ago the share price has been held back....further magnifying the divide between the increasing value of the company and the increasing robust economics of the project...and the lagging share price.

47 cents or thereabouts seems to be the magic number re the shareprice 'machinations' (some might say 'manipulations')

So whats going on here? Capital raising for shareholders/sophisticated investors? Debt facility? Both?

What some of us may have noticed is the 12 month share price range.
The 12 month high is now 65 cents...and its not going up folks...its going down further.
In fact in a little more than 2 weeks that 12 month high of 65 cents will move down another 10 cents to 55.5 cents.

The falls last year around this time coincided with the 'capital raising the company had to have'

I say that because last year the company was considerably much more limited on any number of fronts than it is now. The reverberations from the GFC and economic climate for starters,the much, much smaller resource estimates, the need to acquire the other 50% of the company and of course the day to day expenditure and the drilling campaigns.
It was a challenging time. The company did what it had to do.

12 months on and we have enough information to suggest end users are lining up, and off take agreements would be being considered or negotiated...
Debt facility possibility would only be getting stronger based on the continued significant upgrades of the Irvine resource.

It makes it compelling doesnt it?

Just how much does PLV need to raise via capital/share placements when debt 'appears to be' a much better alternative now the resource has multiplied exponentially and significantly...beyond the companies initial expectations?

So just how much has it increased over the last 12 months?

Try this for size from the PLV presentation October 2009:

"37 MT at 66% iron concentrate from the current resource of 54MT"
and..

"Exploration targeting 130MT and potential for 200MT over the next 12 months"

Now put that into the perspective of the current resource estimates only half way through drilling of 150MT at 66% and a resource of 450MT!!!!!

Its a massive increase.

As Tony said in his last post,resource upgrades were better than he had guessed they would be.

So my question is this; Why go down the capital raising path with the issue of 'more shares' and further dilution when clearly the resource is already clearly beyond expectations?
Why not go the debt facility based on the last 12 months of excellent drilling results?

I have no issue with going to current shareholders and doing a SPP to further prove up the numbers and make it more attractive. This WILL add shareholder value...more to the point 'shareprice' value.

I realise Tony cannot comment at the moment. I think though current shareholders do need to take a look at the devlopments to date and question any future placements to 'sophisticated investors'...perhaps its these 'sophisticated investors' that are doing a number on the share price as we speak whilst we wait in limbo for further clarification on any cap raisings?

And just going back to my earlier mention of the 65 cent 12 month high..soon to be 55 cent high in a couple of weeks-:

It wouldnt be difficult for PLV to break through that on good news and grab the attention of the market?

I see it as a positive and one that will put PLV on watch as it breaks its 12 month highs...particularly as news/developments start pouring out of the company as we know they will.

Much going on behind the scenes and no doubt the company continues to do great things...lets just hope we don't overlook how far we have come and the value of the issue of more shares... instead of debt.

Just my thoughts.





(Tonys post 20/9/2010)

Hi guys,

As you rightly point out Satori I have been "a little" quiet because there is very little I can actually talk about. Also I was in the UK last week.

I am going to have to take a break from posting on PLV on HC for a while because there is nothing I can add to the discussions for various reasons, mainly because it is illegal to do so without making an announcement to the market. When this changes I will gladly add to the discussions.

I said some time ago that 2010 was going to be a big year for PLV. Certainly our resource upgrades have been better than I had guessed, and the Isthmus, visually, looks the goods. Impending assay results and lump/fines testing will give us a clearer picture. We should know both of these results in around 4 weeks.

As to corporate activity, raising funds etc..., well obviously I am unable to comment at this time. Only, again, I can reiterate that it is not Board's intention to have massive dilution at any point in Pluton's history. We want the stock to eventually be worth $$$ not cents.

There is an awful lot happening at PLV at the moment and you can be assured that ALL decisions made (or recommended to shareholders) will be in the best interest of the company and shareholders.

I'm always happy to chat to shareholders on 0411 232 711 or [email protected]