what is icn's valuation?

Yep, a no position held no sentiment poster. Don't shoot me.

Gassed - I hope this board is more accomodating than the thick as bricks mob for the other stock you favor.

Trying to wrap myself around the obvious pieces, namely

1. GSA - with its conditions precendent (but a long way off needing to worry about it)

2. ATP 626P and JV with Stanwell

3. ATP 855P with Beach (igoring PEL 218)


The deal with Stanwell awaits a FS (overdue?) with 1 duster and 1 success (correct?) with the plan to proved up 340PJ (or BCF roughly which is easier for me). GSA in placed to sell 15BCF yr for 15 Yrs (so 225BCF).

Arguably those reserves would be worth about $1.25 - $1.50 in ground - so conservatively $340M of which 50% is ICN so $170M and risked at say 10% chance of success = $17M

Is the chance of success much higher?


Now to the jewel. The goal is the prove 2TCF of 2P reserves to fulfill GSA. That means 5TCF to be proved from drilling for ICN 40% WI.

Success with Halifax - say BPT proves a RESOURCE of 1TCF from this 1 well. In ground Resource worth $0.25 per GJ. So a WI% basis 40% of 1,000,000,000 GJ x $0.25 = $100M

Everything else is "free"

Rough value says $117M - or about where its trading now but with giant upside as in 2 years if 2TCF net to ICN is proved its arguably equal to

2,000,000,000 * $1 = $2B or roughly $4 per share?

Did I make an error in calculation (or is there a 20 bagger if execution to plan occurs)?


Gassed - did I miss something extremely obvious. Other candidate (besides SXY which I already hold) for me is Metgasco.