what is icn's valuation?, page-3

Thx Stardell

My initial lens was looking at the resource potential in ground valuation out until 2TCF net to ICN proved a GSA condition preedent is satisfied - so circa 2 Years ish

Can you explain/confirm your numbers a little more round terms, noting GSA condition precendent.

2TCF of 2P Reserves and GSA is being sold. Smoothing out over 20 years thats 100 BCF per year.

Looks like the Gross Selling price used was $10 GJ??

100Bcf = 100,000,000,Mcf = Mcf or 110,000,000 GJ roughly

Sellling at $10 Gross per GJ? (Is that the expect GSA pricing or firm pricing?)

Thus the $1.1B per annum gross revenue


Does anyone know what the expect Netback per GJ is for ICN on the project accounting for all operating expenses inc F&D costs? What I am trying to determine is something like Funds flow from operstions to maybe get to a NPV/IRR calculation.

If not say Netback 25% of Gross and NOP of $250M pa.

From that deduct ITDA for Net Earnings - so the $120M NPAT as you've highlight is reasonable.


Big questions
1. Is $10/GJ a price ICN can expect in 2015/16?
2. Risk of GSA not happening (i.e. 2 TCF 2P)
3. Obvious risk of low flow
4. How much more capital/shares needed to get to 2P?

Others

Thanks for sharing.