G'day cmonaussie. Good to see you taking a look at ICN and...

G'day cmonaussie. Good to see you taking a look at ICN and expressing your opinion in this forum.
Don't know if you will find it much different to the other one, but, I have always found that ICN readers like sincere and accurate input, but, the LT owners know their company very well and won't take too kindly to ramps of either direction.

Re "value" of ICN. I have just posted that there are several "logical" circumstances that are very close to being played out, which could (should) have a significant impact on the "value" of ICN, both ST, but, more particularly, mid to LT.

I have also tried to shy away from making any comment on "values" when there is so much uncertainty still in the market about the prices of the basic commodity, gas, and the source, shale, where it is being explored.

The prices that you find in doing research are "miles" apart and there are too many contingencies, really, for anyone to make accurate deductions that are in any way helpful, or worthwhile. We have extremely highly paid analysts from the leading investment bank and leading brokers all with different "values". So, I certainly don't intent to come out with MY opinions that will do nothing to help the discussion.

Except to say, we have now been given official selling prices for gas to the domestic market and to the Asian market with announcements by Origin and Brickworks and THAT is what I am hanging my hat on.

My "value" of ICN is now fairly and squarely slanted entirely upon what they get out of APT855 and whether that triggers off the viability of their GSA with Shantou. Yes, down to the roll of a dice.
Based upon those prices, i.e. $10-$14KJ for domestic buyers and Asian buyers, I am sticking to the valuation that Ray James put on the GSA when he stated that the 2.2TCF would be worth between $20 billion and $32 billion and those numbers are now being confirmed by actual contracts.
Over the 20 years of the initial GSA, that comes in at between $1 billion and $1.6 billion per annum. That "could" commence even as early as 2014-15 if all the pieces fall into place.
So how do you "value" that when assessing the "value" of ICN? That, really is a multi billion dollar question and frankly, can only be answered by "the market" who are the ones that have to put up the dough.

Ray James has always said that he wants ICN to take this all the way and actually stay in the picture for the long run. So, in that case, IF he can survive, the "value" can only be determined using the income that they will earn.

With an issued cap of around 530 million shares and with a 20 year GSA and with that potential gas in 855, you would think that there is a very reasonable expectation of a very significant re-rating of ICN's SP, at least mid term, with a solid P.E., including a possible spike in the meantime.
But, if everything falls into place as some of us expect, this is definitely a "multi bagger" as you have put it, probably, quite conservatively.

And the ever existing elephant in the room, being taken over is certainly never out of the question. That is the "X" factor.

APT 626 and the Stanwell GSA are really chicken feed by comparison to what they might have in 855. They still have huge issues with 626 overall, being a CSG play, and having to find sustainable "sweet spots". I am not even giving any consideration to 626 in "evaluating" ICN. The major positive with 626 is that if there is any more exploration, Stanwell still has to pay all the costs up to $30 million.

What happens in the next week or so will just be an interim reaction to what could turn out to be a very significant change to how the market views this company.