Just a few facts to give some perspective.
RED forward guidance is to have an AISC for FY 17 of A$740-780/oz, production of 72-80koz for an EBITDA of approximately A$85m. Current market cap is approx A$84m hence its EV/EBITDA is approximately 1.
Compare this with SLR which in its recent annual report stated that its EBITDA was A$56.7m and today the market cap is approximately A$242m hence its EV/EBITDA is approximately 4.
SLR has hedged forward 76327oz at A$1655/oz - and AISC A$1280 - this may improve .
RED has no hedging.Both companies have no debt. Both are several years away from issuing dividends.
The A$ is rising and the Philippine currency is falling.
With known reserves, RED has an estimated 8yr LOM, SLR has 3 yr. (both almost certain to increase).
I'm sure there are other pertinent facts but I don't believe that SLR and RED should be trading on such different EV/EBITDA - despite the perceived country risk the Phillipines poses. I hold both companies, but I have been switching some SLR into RED based on the above analysis. (kiss of death for RED ?)
SLR was 53c last week so is more than 10% down .... like poor manipulated RED.
RBC in August had an upside of 90-110c for SLR and a downside of 40c. Hartley's in July gave a 12month target of 29c for RED ( EV/EBITDA of 2.5-3 ?) So, worse case analysis, both SLR & RED are cheap?
Buy in gloom, sell in boom - the only formula thats always worked - easy to say , hard to practice.
So, if you think that the US$ is going to the moon (crushing most other currencies especially EM countries) because interest rates are going to 'normalised' and its perceived safe haven status grows, and hence gold will become a worthless 'pet rock', and the Donald is going to make "America Great Again"... you should not buy any gold let alone a gold miner. If you have gold, don't panic, some central bank will happily buy it.
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Last
30.5¢ |
Change
0.015(5.17%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.074B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
29.0¢ | 31.5¢ | 29.0¢ | $6.131M | 20.29M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
17 | 1710117 | 30.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
31.0¢ | 290135 | 11 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
17 | 1710117 | 0.300 |
11 | 1296860 | 0.295 |
15 | 722402 | 0.290 |
30 | 1292788 | 0.285 |
31 | 1212793 | 0.280 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.310 | 290135 | 11 |
0.315 | 805152 | 11 |
0.320 | 1058714 | 15 |
0.325 | 522609 | 11 |
0.330 | 885886 | 13 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 12/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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RED (ASX) Chart |