Value based on cu, ni, gold, zn reserves is $1.52
Could not find costs for silver or lead so did not include them in the estimate. You could therefore say this figure probably underestimates the real value of the share
Value based on resources might be anything up to $7.50. So that could give you some idea of this stocks potential.
So we could say then that at a bare minimum the shares are worth $1.52 and they could go to $7.50
Calculations based on this data on the OZL site.
http://www.ozminerals.com/Operations/Resources--Reserves/Statements.html
a lot of assumptions about retrieval, costs and long term prices are used.
eg
15% lose of metals in reserves in production
20% lose of metals in resources in production
long term price for gold is $700. the price is $765
the long term price for zinc is .70 The price is .83
I believe they are fairly conservative
You may or may not agree.
Reserves
Zinc = A$0.39
Copper = A$1.76
Nickel = $0.17
Gold = $0.11
Cash = $0.38
Minus plant and machinery etc (equity – cash/ number of shares) = $1.29
TOTAL = $1.52
Zinc
Reserves of zinc = 6235 kt
1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
13,745 m lbs
reduce resource by 15% for lose in production
11,952m lbs
actual zinc price =US $0.83
costs at OZL’s biggest mine, Century = US$0.55 (include .08 pre-strip cost and you get 63 cents)
long term price assumption =$0 .70
long term cost assumption = $0.60
profit per lb = .10
quantity x profit = $1,195 m
discounted 10% for risk
$1086 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
US$0.33
A$1 = US$0.85
A$0.39
Copper
Reserves of copper = 1878 kt
1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
4,140 m lbs
reduce resource by 15% for lose in production
3,600 m lbs
actual copper price US$3.23
long term copper price $2.50
estimated costs at OZL’s biggest project = US$0.85
long term cost assumption = $1
profit per lb (2.50-1)= $1.50
quantity x profit = $5,400 m
discount rate for future earnings = 10%
$4,909 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
$1.50
A$1 = US$0.85
A$1.76
Nickel
Nickel resource = 56.1
1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
123 m lbs
reduce resource by 15% for lose in production = 107 m lbs
spot price of nickel US$8.68
long term price assumption = $8
cost at OZL’s biggest mine, Avebury =US $2.50
Long term price assumption = $3
Profit per lb (8-3 ) = $5
Quantity x profit = $537 m
10% discount for future earnings = $488 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
US$ 0.15
A$1 = US$0.85
A$0.17
Gold
Gold resource = 4.3million oz
reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 3,583,333 oz
actual spot price of gold =$763
long term gold price =$700
cost of production at Sepon = $537
long term cost estimate =$600
profit per lb (700 – 600) = $100
quantity x profit = $358 m
10% discount for future earnings = $325 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
US$0.09
A$1 = US$0.85
A$0.11
Cash
$1,233 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
A$0.38
All the plant and machinery becomes useless and worthless once the resource has been mined out of the ground
Therefore take out all the equity – the cash.
-A$4219m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
-$1.29
Resource calculations
Zinc = A$1.27
Copper = A$4.33
Nickel = $2.47
Gold = $0.43
Cash = $0.38
Minus plant & equipment etc = $1.29
Total $7.49
Zinc
Zinc resources :17,806.6 kt (contained metal)
1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
39,259m lbs
reduce resource by 20% for lose in production
32,715 m lbs
actual zinc price =US $0.83
costs at OZL’s biggest mine, Century = US$0.55 (include .08 pre-strip cost and you get 63 cents)
long term price assumption =$0 .70
long term cost assumption = $0.60
profit per lb = .10
quantity x profit per lb = $3926 m
discount rate for future eanings = 10%
$3569 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
US$1.09
A$1 = US$0.85
A$1.27
Copper
Copper resource = 4,815.7
1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
10,616 m lbs
reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 8,847 m lbs
actual copper price US$3.23
long term copper price $2.50
estimated costs at OZL’s biggest project = US$0.85
long term cost assumption = $1
profit per lb = $1.50
quantity x profit = $13,270 m
discount rate for future earnings = 10%
$12,064 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
$3.70
A$1 = US$0.85
A$4.33
Nickel
Nickel resource = 792 Kt
1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
1,746 m lbs
reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 1,455 m lbs
spot price of nickel US$8.68
long term price assumption = $8
cost at OZL’s biggest mine, Avebury =US $2.50
Long term price assumption = $3
Profit per lb (8-3 ) = $5
Quantity x profit = $7,275 m
10% discount for future earnings = $6,613 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
US$ 2.03
A$1 = US$0.85
A$2.37
Gold
Gold resource = 16 million oz
reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 13,333,333 oz
actual spot price of gold =$763
long term gold price =$700
cost of production at Sepon = $537
long term cost estimate =$600
profit per lb (700 – 600) = $100
quantity x profit = $1,333 m
10% discount for future earnings = $1,212 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
US$0.37
A$1 = US$0.85
A$0.43
Cash
$1,233 m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
A$0.38
All the plant and machinery becomes useless and worthless once the resource has been mined out of the ground
Therefore take out all the equity – the cash.
-A$4219m
number of shares = 3,261,092,506
-$1.29
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