OZL 0.00% $26.44 oz minerals limited

what is it really worth

  1. 13,961 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 52
    Value based on cu, ni, gold, zn reserves is $1.52
    Could not find costs for silver or lead so did not include them in the estimate. You could therefore say this figure probably underestimates the real value of the share

    Value based on resources might be anything up to $7.50. So that could give you some idea of this stocks potential.
    So we could say then that at a bare minimum the shares are worth $1.52 and they could go to $7.50

    Calculations based on this data on the OZL site.
    http://www.ozminerals.com/Operations/Resources--Reserves/Statements.html
    a lot of assumptions about retrieval, costs and long term prices are used.
    eg
    15% lose of metals in reserves in production
    20% lose of metals in resources in production
    long term price for gold is $700. the price is $765
    the long term price for zinc is .70 The price is .83
    I believe they are fairly conservative
    You may or may not agree.
    Reserves
    Zinc = A$0.39
    Copper = A$1.76
    Nickel = $0.17
    Gold = $0.11

    Cash = $0.38
    Minus plant and machinery etc (equity – cash/ number of shares) = $1.29
    TOTAL = $1.52

    Zinc
    Reserves of zinc = 6235 kt
    1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
    13,745 m lbs
    reduce resource by 15% for lose in production
    11,952m lbs

    actual zinc price =US $0.83
    costs at OZL’s biggest mine, Century = US$0.55 (include .08 pre-strip cost and you get 63 cents)
    long term price assumption =$0 .70
    long term cost assumption = $0.60
    profit per lb = .10

    quantity x profit = $1,195 m
    discounted 10% for risk
    $1086 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    US$0.33
    A$1 = US$0.85
    A$0.39

    Copper
    Reserves of copper = 1878 kt
    1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
    4,140 m lbs
    reduce resource by 15% for lose in production
    3,600 m lbs
    actual copper price US$3.23
    long term copper price $2.50
    estimated costs at OZL’s biggest project = US$0.85
    long term cost assumption = $1
    profit per lb (2.50-1)= $1.50

    quantity x profit = $5,400 m
    discount rate for future earnings = 10%
    $4,909 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    $1.50
    A$1 = US$0.85
    A$1.76


    Nickel
    Nickel resource = 56.1
    1kt = 2,204,622 lbs

    123 m lbs
    reduce resource by 15% for lose in production = 107 m lbs

    spot price of nickel US$8.68
    long term price assumption = $8
    cost at OZL’s biggest mine, Avebury =US $2.50
    Long term price assumption = $3
    Profit per lb (8-3 ) = $5

    Quantity x profit = $537 m
    10% discount for future earnings = $488 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506

    US$ 0.15
    A$1 = US$0.85
    A$0.17

    Gold

    Gold resource = 4.3million oz
    reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 3,583,333 oz

    actual spot price of gold =$763
    long term gold price =$700
    cost of production at Sepon = $537
    long term cost estimate =$600
    profit per lb (700 – 600) = $100

    quantity x profit = $358 m
    10% discount for future earnings = $325 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    US$0.09
    A$1 = US$0.85
    A$0.11

    Cash
    $1,233 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    A$0.38



    All the plant and machinery becomes useless and worthless once the resource has been mined out of the ground
    Therefore take out all the equity – the cash.

    -A$4219m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    -$1.29


    Resource calculations
    Zinc = A$1.27
    Copper = A$4.33
    Nickel = $2.47
    Gold = $0.43
    Cash = $0.38
    Minus plant & equipment etc = $1.29
    Total $7.49


    Zinc
    Zinc resources :17,806.6 kt (contained metal)
    1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
    39,259m lbs
    reduce resource by 20% for lose in production
    32,715 m lbs

    actual zinc price =US $0.83
    costs at OZL’s biggest mine, Century = US$0.55 (include .08 pre-strip cost and you get 63 cents)
    long term price assumption =$0 .70
    long term cost assumption = $0.60
    profit per lb = .10

    quantity x profit per lb = $3926 m
    discount rate for future eanings = 10%
    $3569 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    US$1.09
    A$1 = US$0.85
    A$1.27



    Copper
    Copper resource = 4,815.7
    1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
    10,616 m lbs
    reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 8,847 m lbs

    actual copper price US$3.23
    long term copper price $2.50
    estimated costs at OZL’s biggest project = US$0.85
    long term cost assumption = $1
    profit per lb = $1.50

    quantity x profit = $13,270 m
    discount rate for future earnings = 10%
    $12,064 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    $3.70
    A$1 = US$0.85
    A$4.33

    Nickel
    Nickel resource = 792 Kt
    1kt = 2,204,622 lbs

    1,746 m lbs
    reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 1,455 m lbs

    spot price of nickel US$8.68
    long term price assumption = $8
    cost at OZL’s biggest mine, Avebury =US $2.50
    Long term price assumption = $3
    Profit per lb (8-3 ) = $5

    Quantity x profit = $7,275 m
    10% discount for future earnings = $6,613 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506

    US$ 2.03
    A$1 = US$0.85
    A$2.37

    Gold

    Gold resource = 16 million oz
    reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 13,333,333 oz

    actual spot price of gold =$763
    long term gold price =$700
    cost of production at Sepon = $537
    long term cost estimate =$600
    profit per lb (700 – 600) = $100
    quantity x profit = $1,333 m
    10% discount for future earnings = $1,212 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    US$0.37
    A$1 = US$0.85
    A$0.43

    Cash
    $1,233 m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    A$0.38

    All the plant and machinery becomes useless and worthless once the resource has been mined out of the ground
    Therefore take out all the equity – the cash.

    -A$4219m
    number of shares = 3,261,092,506
    -$1.29












 
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