Value based on cu, ni, gold, zn reserves is $1.52 Could not find costs for silver or lead so did not include them in the estimate. You could therefore say this figure probably underestimates the real value of the share
Value based on resources might be anything up to $7.50. So that could give you some idea of this stocks potential. So we could say then that at a bare minimum the shares are worth $1.52 and they could go to $7.50
Calculations based on this data on the OZL site. http://www.ozminerals.com/Operations/Resources--Reserves/Statements.html a lot of assumptions about retrieval, costs and long term prices are used. eg 15% lose of metals in reserves in production 20% lose of metals in resources in production long term price for gold is $700. the price is $765 the long term price for zinc is .70 The price is .83 I believe they are fairly conservative You may or may not agree. Reserves Zinc = A$0.39 Copper = A$1.76 Nickel = $0.17 Gold = $0.11
Cash = $0.38 Minus plant and machinery etc (equity – cash/ number of shares) = $1.29 TOTAL = $1.52
Zinc Reserves of zinc = 6235 kt 1kt = 2,204,622 lbs 13,745 m lbs reduce resource by 15% for lose in production 11,952m lbs
actual zinc price =US $0.83 costs at OZL’s biggest mine, Century = US$0.55 (include .08 pre-strip cost and you get 63 cents) long term price assumption =$0 .70 long term cost assumption = $0.60 profit per lb = .10
quantity x profit = $1,195 m discounted 10% for risk $1086 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 US$0.33 A$1 = US$0.85 A$0.39
Copper Reserves of copper = 1878 kt 1kt = 2,204,622 lbs 4,140 m lbs reduce resource by 15% for lose in production 3,600 m lbs actual copper price US$3.23 long term copper price $2.50 estimated costs at OZL’s biggest project = US$0.85 long term cost assumption = $1 profit per lb (2.50-1)= $1.50
quantity x profit = $5,400 m discount rate for future earnings = 10% $4,909 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 $1.50 A$1 = US$0.85 A$1.76
Nickel Nickel resource = 56.1 1kt = 2,204,622 lbs
123 m lbs reduce resource by 15% for lose in production = 107 m lbs
spot price of nickel US$8.68 long term price assumption = $8 cost at OZL’s biggest mine, Avebury =US $2.50 Long term price assumption = $3 Profit per lb (8-3 ) = $5
Quantity x profit = $537 m 10% discount for future earnings = $488 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506
US$ 0.15 A$1 = US$0.85 A$0.17
Gold
Gold resource = 4.3million oz reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 3,583,333 oz
actual spot price of gold =$763 long term gold price =$700 cost of production at Sepon = $537 long term cost estimate =$600 profit per lb (700 – 600) = $100
quantity x profit = $358 m 10% discount for future earnings = $325 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 US$0.09 A$1 = US$0.85 A$0.11
Cash $1,233 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 A$0.38
All the plant and machinery becomes useless and worthless once the resource has been mined out of the ground Therefore take out all the equity – the cash.
Zinc Zinc resources :17,806.6 kt (contained metal) 1kt = 2,204,622 lbs 39,259m lbs reduce resource by 20% for lose in production 32,715 m lbs
actual zinc price =US $0.83 costs at OZL’s biggest mine, Century = US$0.55 (include .08 pre-strip cost and you get 63 cents) long term price assumption =$0 .70 long term cost assumption = $0.60 profit per lb = .10
quantity x profit per lb = $3926 m discount rate for future eanings = 10% $3569 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 US$1.09 A$1 = US$0.85 A$1.27
Copper Copper resource = 4,815.7 1kt = 2,204,622 lbs 10,616 m lbs reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 8,847 m lbs
actual copper price US$3.23 long term copper price $2.50 estimated costs at OZL’s biggest project = US$0.85 long term cost assumption = $1 profit per lb = $1.50
quantity x profit = $13,270 m discount rate for future earnings = 10% $12,064 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 $3.70 A$1 = US$0.85 A$4.33
1,746 m lbs reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 1,455 m lbs
spot price of nickel US$8.68 long term price assumption = $8 cost at OZL’s biggest mine, Avebury =US $2.50 Long term price assumption = $3 Profit per lb (8-3 ) = $5
Quantity x profit = $7,275 m 10% discount for future earnings = $6,613 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506
US$ 2.03 A$1 = US$0.85 A$2.37
Gold
Gold resource = 16 million oz reduce resource by 20% for lose in production = 13,333,333 oz
actual spot price of gold =$763 long term gold price =$700 cost of production at Sepon = $537 long term cost estimate =$600 profit per lb (700 – 600) = $100 quantity x profit = $1,333 m 10% discount for future earnings = $1,212 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 US$0.37 A$1 = US$0.85 A$0.43
Cash $1,233 m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 A$0.38
All the plant and machinery becomes useless and worthless once the resource has been mined out of the ground Therefore take out all the equity – the cash.
-A$4219m number of shares = 3,261,092,506 -$1.29
OZL Price at posting:
$13.40 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held