This morning I am going to have a go at valuing IVX in my own personal opinion / views and this is only food for thought.
Based on the latest presentation, we have now some numbers to play with assessing the potential value of IVX.
This is what we know so far:
1) Hudson has some initial success with Oviarian Cancer front and are continue on with the research - Lets factor in for now ZERO value.
2) Skin Cancer - current focus as per latest presentation.Phrase III by 4qrt this year and Product Registration next year.
In the presentation, it says:
IVX is pursuing Bascal Cell Cancer (BCC) & Actinic Keratosis (AK) and the Australian market for these 2 types of skin cancer is approx. AUD$703m. So I take it the New Zealand market has not been factored in? But lets work on the AUD$703m number for now.
Assuming IVX is successful with the trial and go to market within the next 2/3 yrs, the following are possible potential value of IVX.
5% of market share
$35M x 20 times multiple for a typical biotech stock with high growth potential = $700M Potential value
10% of market share
$70M x 20 = $1.4B Potential value
It doesn't matter how conservative the calculation are, even if we factor in 10x multiple, still plenty of upside from the current $77M market cap. Reason for using 5% or 10% potential grab of market share is because when you successfully commercialise something that is better and efficient than what is on the market, you will naturally enjoy a bigger share of the pie.
We have not even factor in any value yet for the Oviarian front and IVX will also be pursing as well lung and prostate cancers.
I welcome any constructive comments/input to my $2 worth of view above. But please don't post things like uSpike news/article, its already in the past and the facts now speaks for itself. Lets hope the roadshow will bring some serious investors in the stock.
Have a great long weekend !
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Last
0.4¢ |
Change
-0.001(20.0%) |
Mkt cap ! $25.69M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | $7.245K | 1.811M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
32 | 27102012 | 0.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.5¢ | 7857961 | 27 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
32 | 27102012 | 0.004 |
18 | 10901003 | 0.003 |
6 | 5200000 | 0.002 |
11 | 16000000 | 0.001 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.005 | 7857961 | 27 |
0.006 | 4900442 | 15 |
0.007 | 3177309 | 5 |
0.008 | 4842200 | 6 |
0.009 | 3230299 | 10 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 26/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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