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Hi Asterixr,you should go to the LCK website and in their...

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Jenkstar

1,119 Posts.

267

09/11/21

15:25

Post #: 57431866
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Originally posted by Asterixr: ↑

Having spent too much time locked down during Covid, I put together a simple spreadsheet to forecast LCK's earnings.
At full production in 2025/6, 1mt x $650/t less $150/t cost of production = $500m.
Now deduct $20m opex, $80 depreciation and another $120m in interest (I've assumed all the $2.3bn is borrowed at 5% as making equity issue assumptions is too complicated). Deducting a further $80m (30%) for tax and one gets a NPAT of $200m or 20c/share (assume 1,000m shares).
A 15x multiple (because these are steady, predictable and conservative earnings) gives a SP of $2.50. The NPV over the next 30 years, using a 6% discount rate is $3.5bn or $3.50/share.
It will be interesting to see what value the market attributes when the company announces how they plan to fund their 30% share of the project as DL E&C Co are funding the other 70%.
We live in hope...

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Hi Asterixr,

you should go to the LCK website and in their investor section you will find a MST Access report (dated July 2021) which will give you a detailed breakdown of LCK financial forecasts, and the analysts view on capital raising, cashflow and valuation.

makes for interesting reading and will help validate some of you numbers.

LCK Price at posting: 12.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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