what is plv worth ??, page-5

What is PLV worth?

Check out any ASX stock listing, no brainer, the market is always correct for any historical moment in time.

What will PLV be worth at some point in the future, now that is an entirely different proposition and a good question to boot. Not like one of the myriad of airy-fairy questions which have been asked here recently. Thrown up like pieces of fluff into the air, they have no substance, often change direction depending on the way the wind is blowing and ultimately serve as a distraction.

Last Friday, Pluton shares COST sub nine cents, only a north Queensland politician may be tempted to argue otherwise. It would seem fairly obvious that the stock price is whatever people are prepared to pay for a stock at a given moment in time and as such is subject to the market forces of supply and demand, often motivated by the emotions of fear and greed. But historical stock prices are never going to make us any money.

However the underlying value of PLV may be quite different to what people were prepared to pay last Friday. As time goes by, IF the underlying value of PLV is different to yesterday’s price then the price will eventually catch up. Mr Market is somewhat like an old man trying to find a seat. A little slow to move, does not change direction very easily, prone to lurch unexpectedly and occasionally misplaced but over time he usually settles into the right spot.
At the moment, old man Market deems that the risks at PLV outweigh the rewards at anything above 10cents per share. Some clarification on use of GNR funds and expansion of the resource will help to diminish the risks. WEG and GNR continuing to facilitate sales of what we produce without inhibiting our operations will eventually create confidence in our offshore partners. Or maybe some of them are onshore and living it up with a nice view of Sydney Harbour tonight? Good luck to them, I don’t begrudge anyone who has been successful.

I am sure that most people understand that ledger sheets can be modified to enhance or diminish some entries depending on what you are trying to achieve. For instance, Kerry Packer used to say that if you pay none of your tax you are a criminal and if you pay all of it you are an idiot. He obviously employed some of the best accountant brains to assist him in presenting his balance sheet to the ATO in order that he pay the tax HE deemed suitable. I am not looking for a laborious accounting lecture from anyone on this, suffice to say that even though the accountants have deemed Cockatoo value to be zero for whatever reasons, I say that if we are waving goodbye to a Handymax every fortnight-ish that brings in some millions profit, then Cockatoo is worth more than zip and eventually old man Market will shuffle up to a bit bigger chair.

Over the last week, Mr Market has not said that PLV is worth somewhere between 6-9 cents, it has actually said it is worth somewhere between 8-10 cents. I understand you like to spin anything you can to be negative, but at least try to keep your spin on the pitch, otherwise it will be called wide.

As to why some holders sell down their significant positions in a company you are entering a minefield of explanations that may or may not be the right answer and without being privy to all conversations are only guessing. Cons Min sold down BCI for a nice profit after grabbing about 30 cent divvy which was in the order of about 10%. What does that mean, will BCI start to drop from now on as there are problems within BCI that Cons found out about? Or will BCI continue to profit and over the next 8-10 years Cons may have received divvies equivalent to their sell out price? Has Cons forecast that IO will decline for the next few years and chosen to exit for that reason? Or has it got to do with Cons choosing to allocate that capital differently for reasons that have nothing to do with BCI stock performance.

RED have abandoned their rights issue and instead secured funding from instos which may include EIM, possibly accounting for EIM selling down their holding in PLV. Or it may be that EIM simply have their knickers in a knot because they could not or would not grab the JV deal that WEG got and have chosen to sell down like JPM and Cliffs did. My point is that most of us punters on here don’t know what is the reason for these holders selling down. Some appear to be inferring that there is an elephant in the room which explains why the big boys are exiting the building, hence the price drop.

I am no apologist for management, they are big enough and ugly enough to answer for themselves. I don’t have unlimited funds nor patience. If the milestones I have set for PLV to perform by are not met by Christmas I will be selling down my holding. But I do believe in giving them the opportunity and elbow room to see what they can accomplish by then without asking them to explain every week. If they don’t perform then I have no intention of whinging on here to make myself feel better, it will be pack my bags and leave – end of story. As much as I detested her politics, I do admire Julia Gillard for doing just that when she left the Lodge.

We are all anxiously waiting for news regarding GNR bond use. It doesn’t require an IQ like Einstein to figure out that if we have no news then the issue is not resolved and we can’t use it ATM. When the issues are resolved then we will know. We are shareholders, not managers within the company with a need to know all the ins and outs of what is going down. If surgeons are operating on someone you care about, is it really going to help to be knocking on the door of the operating theatre every 10 minutes for an update? As Kingy just said, if GNR don’t want our good quality stuff, I am sure someone else will.

WEG are enjoying dividing a bag of cash with us everytime we ship out of Cockatoo. I don’t think they got shafted when you look at the big picture, in fact if anyone got shafted it was those of us that put money into the company and actually hold shares – comprende?