Paul, spot on (no pun intended). I think it was probably my post...

Paul, spot on (no pun intended). I think it was probably my post yesterday that pointed out the sub debt issue as well as the issue with the spot copper price potentially not supporting timely debt repayment.

So my naive thoughts. Well, despite the copper prices being in the toilet for the forseeable future(see my post about the deary copper price forecasts in the Eureka Report) there is a chance that they can squeek it through. GSJBW will be spitting chips about the 5mil in options that are underwater. And I am very sure that New York is telling each sub to conserve cash and get their funding lines in place. The GSJBW debt is essentially a commmercial paper 364 day revolver. And there are two reasons bankers call it a revolver! I think that their only chance at not blowing up is a lifeline from a takeover. Do I think that is likely. I posted today that I thought it unlikely but I would dip my toe in just in case the upside is there.

I am long as of today because as I said to one poster, it makes it more interesting for me. But it surely is not an amount that will get the missus angry if it disappears.

My interest was peaked when I saw it on a Fitch Ratings list of the most indebted miners. They sat at 71% and they are now over 80%. My experience would say that they are frantically engaging other banks to refi the revolver. The liquidity crunch means that even the best projects have little chance of funding because the money just isn't there. Note that PNA has an ANZ syndicate (look at their losses!) and GSJBW (the writedowns are just starting there - just google Option ARMs and you will see what I mean).

It is going to be interesting -- and ugly.