What is Talon worth?, page-3

Yes, it's not the company's work and Colby has previously stated that any sale of TPD's stake in Gurvantes will NOT be based on the lookthrough methodology.

As I have posted previously, I prefer the "In Ground Valuation" methodology as it is based on the actual independently certified resource, not by reference to TMK (I think that method is flawed).

My IGV is based on TPD's share of the 1.2Tcf 2C resource => 400Bcf

As the resource is 2C => convention is to discount by 50% for risk => 200Bcf

The risked 2C is then multiplied by a $/Gj which is much lower than the market price to reflect CAPEX and OPEX required => I have used a very modest figure of AUD$1.00 which some might argue is too low => this gives an IGV of $211M. Market price of Mongolia gas is alluded to as USD$10/Gj.

I note that Bridge have applied a lesser reduction for risk at 75% which based on IGV would give $316M @ AUD$1.00

So, if the Pilot Well program is successful, a further reduction in risk could apply (E.G. Bridge's assessment of Walyering is at 95%)

As we all know, Colby is currently looking to sell our stake in Gurvantes. The interested parties he is currently sharing project metrics with will NOT be bidding based on TMK SP, they will be bidding based on the size of the resource. As @Chancerman posted recently, what we might achieve as a sale price will likely depend on if there is competition for the asset and what the asset is potentially worth to each prospective buyer. It is relatively worth more to buyer A than buyer B based on the profile of each buyer. FWIW, Chancerman's assessment was $100M+ with any improvement dependent on competition (and subject to satisfactory flow rates)

People are welcome to apply their own risk ratings and $/Gj as they see fit. The above is just my thoughts.

JMO. DYOR.